Iron ore price, page-37473

I do a lot of work in China and expected this moment. I exited FMG at 24 and got in ex dividend at 18.50 - in hindsight, too early. I based my valuation of what FMG is worth on the FY 2019 results. It is worth re-visiting this to get an admittedly approximate view of what FMG is worth.
FY21 figures in ( ).

Shipments 167.5 T (182.2)
Average Prices USD 65.06 (135.2).
NPAT USD bil 3.187 (10.3)
EPS AUD 1.44 (4.48)
Dividend AUD 1.14 (3.58)
Share Price 30 sept19 8.62
PE at this price 3.72
Yield at this price 13.2%
Remarks
1. That yield and PE was insane. In this zero interest rate world, multiple expansion is a certainty.
2. Just based on that realized iron ore price and profit, a doubling of the PE to 7.50 and reduction in the yield to 6.6%, gives us a valuation of 8.62 x 2 = 17.24.
3. Any understanding of AF shows he is heading towards being a diversified miner. This is potentially a mini BHP in the making for those willing to ride it out. This could be like the opportunity I (and no doubt many more) missed when BHP tanked to $18 and I thought it was toast.
4. The blended grade FMG will be supplying from 2022 onwards is much higher than the low grades of 2019, thanks to the new high grade projects. So the discount between the benchmark iron ore price and what FMG will get is rapidly narrowing. They could realize a price of 65 even at IO 85 as a rough approximation.