There's still Cash to come in from the current qtr's activities. For half the qtr, Prices were pretty darn good. This looks like it will be sold down to the Cash level they had at the end of June - not taking into account any of their tax loss and the ore in the ground. Plus I expect there will be Cash inflows in the next quarterly from operations this qtr (first half better than the second half)
They had
QC MATILDE to departed 22 July (~201.20 Us per ton and 0.52 lump premium)*
WEN DE departed on the 6 Aug (~171.00 Us per ton and 0.40 lump premium)*
New Honor departed on the 14th August (~161.60 Us per ton and 0.25 lump premium)*
QC MATILDE departed on the 31st August (~151.70 US per ton and 0.09 lump premium)*
Bejing 2008 departed on the 13th September (~122.00 Us per ton and 0.06 lump premium)
*All prices here are from http://www.custeel.com/. Don't know what actual price we got.
Two more look to load to finish Sept- YM IMPRESSION 20th September
- ONE OCEAN 24th September
That's a lot of ore sold and money to come in still. For that reason and the fact that we don't seem to be taking into account any value for the ore in the ground etc, I'm holding for now but would look to buy more if the price falls further and I'm able to free up cash.
I also wonder what will happen post March and the olympics are over, blue sky campaign ended and all the smaller ore providers are shut down. Steel is still in demand (prices are high) and perhaps the rest of the world picks up some of that china slowdown... then China comes out and ramps up. Feels like an ore squeeze could happen again...
All of this is my opinion. Do your own research and good luck to people. In hindsight i should have sold at 40 and got back in here. Didn't happen but I don't think the story is over by a long shot.
