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I like bearish balance and you seem to be speaking in pretty good faith, here are some responses to a few of your points

1. Regarding Sprott impact - yes, they aren't a consumer, so it's hard to judge what long term *concrete* effect their presence might have. With that said, we have some precedent in that the formation of UPC during the 2007 bull market was a left field event that by all accounts contributed to the bull market they were having along w/ cigar lake flood & end of megatons-to-megawatts. This time, it's definitely not a big surprise event (in fact UPC and YCA already existed), but the ATM mechanism is more aggressive and markets are more liquid/fast/aggressive today. So in terms of impact, those are the data points we have for extrapolating from.

2. Regarding Sprott consumption - overall, the intention was never for Sprott to be some long term consumer eating masses of supply for years on end, or even to drive up the price by "increasing demand", the intention was to promote price discovery by being a consumer who actually demands near-term delivery, and this is all I ever saw from detailed analysis of it back even towards the start of the year. Articles stating otherwise are poorly informed or at least not being precise enough in their wording. This fast delivery / price discovery component was considered more important than any particular volume considerations, and that's how it's played out so far, with spot from $30->$50 with literally just a name change, ATM mechanism, and very slight increase in accessibility via its OTC listing (but really the volume is on TSX where it was already available under UPC).

3. Regarding byproduct - Yes, ~10% of world supply comes from BHP's Olympic Dam as byproduct, this is the major byproduct contributor. I don't think byproduct stands up well as a means of flexing up global production rather than just forming contracts with pure uranium miners somewhere in the $50-80/lb range, but maybe I have a blind spot here?

4. Regarding Sprott holding forever - that's what's in their prospectus and it's how their other PM fund vehicles work, however I agree it sounds far fetched in the ultra long term. My guess is they pivot into some kind of lending or trading mechanism eventually. I'm not worried about them suddenly opening up in the near term as a seller and flooding the market, this seems counter-productive to them given Sprott are heavily invested in mining equities, putting them on the same side of the trade as SPUT holders. In terms of utilities seeing SPUT inventory and thinking "we'll be able to access that material if the worst comes to the absolute worst, there's no rush", I really think it's only getting unlocked in a big overshoot scenario where the volumes held in SPUT clearly aren't going to rescue the world from a deficit anyway. BTW, Sprott don't dump if spot price decreases, pretty sure the fund just trades at a lower price