Hi all. Well for what it's worth, which probably isn't much, here are my beer-fueled ramblings after a long and tiring week (PDN raising and associated takeover speculation has kept me busy)...
I also think the takeover window is closed and the most likely option is now JV. The big players have missed their chance, the resource has got away from everyone's expectations. EXT definitely have all the bargaining power. I just don't think anyone will have the many billions required to achieve a successful takeover, and then have to find another billion to get the mine up and running. No, much easier to, say, only fund the mine costs and then play a role in marketing/selling the product. EXT keep the value of their huge resource and then take a large part of the sale receipts as well.
Side note: about a year ago I dismissed suggestions of an EXT share price of around 15-20. Although I sitll stand buy my explanation at the time (something like it wouldn't get forced up there just because of a takeover fight), I now agree with those who made the 15-20 estimates. The resource has got so big so fast it is surprising everyone. I am very happy to admit I was wrong about the potential of this resource, you've got to think we'll easily get 600 million.
Good night and good luck.
EXT Price at posting:
$10.39 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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