You are at the optimistic end of the possible range.
The tin price was lower in the first quarter. Some of the tin price spike is due to production disruption in Malaysia, so what the tin price will average over the rest of the year is hard to tell.
MLX has spare inventory of 300t from last quarter (with costs already incurred), so even if production is near the lower end of forecast range in the last quarterly of 8500-9000t they could in theory still sell 8750t.
However, they are not selling all production at present because of disruption to smelting in Malaysia so there is some risk that may not happen.
AISC roughly approximates EBITDA on recent history so on sales of 8750t ( and using the mid point of AISC range) I get $120 million EBITDA for MLX this FY year.
If you add $3000 per tonne for the amount that AIS exceeded AISC last year (AIS includes project and exploration costs and approximates cash flow) the free cash flow is around $100 million this year.
That is below your figure, but MLX is still very cheap at a market cap of only $340 million.
MLX Price at posting:
37.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)