Couple of quick points as I'm replying this thread late:
Morningstar ratings of fair value for anything outside of the ASX 300 is fairly worthless. They even say in their own report that the uncertainty level of the price rating is VERY HIGH.
Bigger picture approach to speculative investing: if you strongly believe a company will triple in value within a couple of years, but has a lot of price movement volatility leading up to it, then there is no way to time your entry optimally. Buying parcels regularly averages your entry price and is what I've done regularly since May last year with a portion of my day job income
Why I'm pretty deep into MNS: I wanted to invest into green tech within the ASX that is also an anti-china play, and I got into this company because I saw their strategic pivot/activities since 2018 and believe strongly in the abilities of their C4V and IM3 teams to actually deliver now that they've learned a lot of lessons as a company. Their deals with India, US-centric supply chain and all the moves they're making recently has solidifed my belief that this is the type of company I want to be investing in during its early stage and happy to join CRs if I can access them.
Current thoughts on the state of the stock: Despite all the down ramping after every spike and lots of management issues throughout the past 15 months I've held (including half of Magnis' board resigning/leaving on less than ideal terms), the SP haven't crashed and burned from our 20c and 30c peaks (some sliding due to low trading activity, but no massive plunge from the mean). Every Capital Raising needed to finance/progress the project has been enthusiastically embraced by big money investors that don't make decisions solely on forum posts. Whether or not they've immediately flipped their shares on the open market for a 5-10% gain is anyone's guess but I would say that's a very small margin of profit to gamble on a company that has currently no revenue.
I would say at 32c entry, you'll have to be ready to hold at least 10 months due to a lot of expected announcements and revenue already priced in. Price discount is all risk-related and that's also why it's probably fairly priced between 40-50c, and 70c-$1.5 once they are producing and fulfilling smaller orders around the 500MWh capacity (hoping by March/April next year).
OTC Best markets access will give us more American investor exposure compared to OTC Pink where we are now, but since they are still broker-facilitated and not accessible to direct retail investors/traders, the full price adjustment to US PE ratios per GWh of production we expect (including me) will not be fully realised till production is underway, then the price growth will be hype about the production capacity expansion from 1.8GWh to 5GWh to 8 to 30+.
Also with the TRUE US listing that most people are talking about here (i.e. IM3 themselves going to NASDAQ or NYSE), I actually don't think we'll be eligible for that particular listing till we are very close to automated process for production (so 22Q2). This is due to revenue and share price requirements for listing eligibility (we can only list on Nasdaq when we're stable at $1/share or higher). Once IM3 lists there then sure, we will probably get the SP adjustment to 62% of $2.2 USD/GWh producing maybe with a small premium for a tangible near-term capacity growth plan, but that's just the cherry on top of already having tripled current prices. This is just for new investors to properly manage their expectations and not think this will be a quick in and out type momentum flip stock. Manufacturing is hard. Manufacturing a high tech product is hard and slow because there isn't yet a public blueprint on how to actually set and operate one (except the CEO's professional experience helping set up Tesla's Nevada gigafactory, which is why IM3 actually has a decent shot of succeeding over other new starters with zero industry credentials) . So my still fairly wild guesstimate is that 32c is safe to enter at and you will have a profitable exit if you have patience and mental resilience. I cannot see a scenario where it'll fall and stay below 30c for the next 12 months unless some factory ending scandal is uncovered about IM3 or C4V, or a safety incident at the factory sets the project back a few months. The fact that they've included a mention of the latter every update assures investors they're working expediently, but do not want to have a major set back from rushing which shows wisdom in their process. Adding the progress percentage also is the kind of accountability/transparency from IM3 that instils confidence.
My advice to new investors: If you're not ready to stomach a moderate risk, take a small leap of faith, then you aren't ready to earn this type of returns. Just periodically accrue XJO or VDHG, set and forget, and you'll still be doing fine.
My exit plan (no one asked but I think it's important part of an investment strategy):
selling 25% of my holdings at whatever the price hits days before proper US listing of IM3 on Nasdaq or NYSE
selling a further 25% within the week after listing
selling another 25% around the 3-6 months after production starts
hold the remaining 25% indefinitely for as long as the company is doing well in fulfilling orders, expanding production capacity, and progressing IM3TSV.
If I'm genuinely worried things are going in the wrong direction / too much delays or surprise issues, then well I will move on sooner. Pretty simple.
All IMO, me writing in mode details does not automatically mean I will be right (hence lots of caveats and a bit of both sides viewpoint represented). I just prefer to lay all cards on the table in a single post, at least for this particular stock. I like to come back from time to time to see how my thinking evolves / matures over the lifetime of holding such a fascinating and exciting company especially given its history and evolution.
(20min delay)