Here are some other back of the envelope calculations based on revising underlying businesses based on the fact that GQG was so undervalued on the books.In terms of the breakdown of revenues and earnings of PAC’s boutique investments, I wanted to demonstrate how undervalued I think PAC’s boutique’s are. The valuation method is overly conservative and represents what would potentially be a great arbitrage opportunity.
Current Net Assets stand at just under $8 per share.
This includes the following valuation:
Boutique
Financial Report Valuation
Lost’s Valuation
Difference (arbitrage value)
1 GQG
$115,275,000 (Note 18f)
Values GQG at $2.305B
Range $6.2B and $7.5B
Based on 5%
$310M to $375M
Based on 4%
$248M to $300M
$133M to $260M
Between $2.62 and $5.11 per share is missing from Net Assets of $8 per share
2 PennyBacker
$5,672,000 Note 18f
Values PennyBacker at $34.376M
Company NPAT is $4.604M
This is a PE Ratio of 7.47 (seriously?)
Valuation at Lost’s 15 times earnings (this is a discount to current US REIT valuation of 19.73 times)
Revised valuation is $69.06M*.165 = $11.395M
$5.723M based on 15 times PE Ratio
This is 11c per share (every little bit counts)
3 VPC – VPC and VPC Holdco
PAC’s value 2021 $75.651M Note 22(b)
Full VPC value - $302.6M
PAC’s value 2020 $81.549M
Full VPC value - $326.2M
See Table 1 below – revenue fell 5.45%, however NPAT almost doubled increasing by 93.7%
2021 PE Ratio is 11.3
2020 PE Ratio is 23.59
The valuation appears to be based on what PAC earnt, not what was generated by the VPC business.
Valuation should be a PE Ratio of 20, given the strong growth coming up this year.
20 * $26.781M NPAT
VPC Total value is $535.62M
PAC’s share is $133.37M based on 20 times PE Ratio
$133.37M - $75.651M = 57.719M valuation missing
This is $1.14 per share
Above revaluations increase share price by between $3.87 and $6.36 (missing from Net Assets of $8 per share).
*Table 1
Best of Luck
Lost
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$10.90 |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $328.6M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$10.91 | $10.99 | $10.88 | $353.0K | 32.28K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 8546 | $10.90 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$10.96 | 500 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 8546 | 10.900 |
1 | 1791 | 10.880 |
1 | 700 | 10.550 |
1 | 500 | 10.500 |
2 | 1000 | 10.440 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
11.000 | 12226 | 3 |
11.020 | 10000 | 1 |
11.060 | 10000 | 1 |
11.160 | 2000 | 1 |
11.190 | 401 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 07/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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AUSTRALIAN GOLD AND COPPER LTD
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