I think you are possibly asking the wrong guy; all I can go by is my observation on the one stock/option pair. In that case, Incannex, as it happens; and a very good buy it was for me, the widening gap would have started around a month before expiry. I guess, if one wanted to, one could check this quite easily by charting the two over say a three months period. This would show you what happened. And, clearly, watching comparative charts for something you are interested in would possibly show when the gap starts widening.
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