+ + data and comment + +, page-52

re: + + short, preliminary share price study + + This MBP study thread:

http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_thread.asp?fid=1&tid=52191&sym=MBP#130595

Shares: 228.7 mill. Man. Options, various dates: 6.1 mill.
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A preliminary short study in pricing of MBP.

Assume that the drug trial Phase IIb is successful. I don't know if they can get a concession from the FDA (FDA is always interested in obesity and resulting diseases), however, Phase III needs to be completed.
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For the purpose of this exercise, assume the P/E will be 20 during the first year, the MBP drug AOD9604
hits the market.

Assume that the NPAT is $45.74 mill or 20 cents per share. On a P/E of 20, the share price ought to be $4.0.

(Note that this P/E could be higher as prospects for the second year in the market will most likely be built in).

My opinion is that a very good royalty can be arranged and that the drug will become very popular. While it will take some time to hit the market it is possible that the NPAT of $45.74 will be surpassed.

If so, then the guided share price of $4 could be increased accordingly.

Trial Phase 2b to end in Sept. and reporting of results in Nov.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.