Even with CSF alone without any of the Australian and other US assets and interests in syndicates, CER is worth more than present.
Although NOI for Super assets is likely to decline in the next 12 months, I expect net profit to remain constant or even increase slightly as much of the Super debt is variable and tied to the 30 day LIBOR as the benchmark. In the second half of last year, LIBOR spiked quite high due to the collapse of the Lehman Brothers. It is now fairly negligible.
I put on here recently how much net profit CER would be deriving on a look forward basis from CSF taking into account all asset sales. The majority of CSF debt does not mature until beyond 2012. I would be happy receiving distributions from just CSF in perpetuity.
I think axlsusie put on the CNP thread that CER has quite a few trust holdings that are cashflow positive. The great thing about CER's structure is that risk is generally quarantined within each of CER's trust holdings.
That is CMBS Series debt quarantined within the assets it has been secured against, Super debt quarantined against Super assets, same with CSF debt and so forth.
If CMBS series debt cannot be refinanced at the end of the year, CER is required to pay penalty interest of 55 basis points for 18 months thereafter and if it is still unable to repay the debt owing from the assets the debt was secured against, no further action can be taken against CER.
Cheers
CER Price at posting:
12.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
