Dr Brugger,
You need to analysis the risk profiles of the people both before and after vaccination.
Covid-19 is a disease that mainly effects the elderly and other people with co-morbities.
with age
The risk profile for an unvaccinated individual rises quite dramatically with age.
To cover this high risk group vaccination programs aimed to vaccinate these high risks groups first.
Now the statistics can be quite striking. Using data on England on the Delta variant up to 3 September 2021, what the statistics show is that the highest risk group for death was the Unvaccinated over 50s. They had a 1 in 2,216 chance of catching and dying from the Delta variant. However, as at 30 June 2021, the Unvaccinated over 50s only accounted for 1.6% of the population.
Now the next highest risk group was the Fully Vaccinated Over 50s. If you were in this group you had a 1 in 18,607 chance of having caught and died from the Delta Strain. This represents an 88% reduction in risk compared to the same age group who are Unvaccinated. However, because of priorities to vaccinated the most at risk first, they constitute 32.5% of the England population, or are 20 times the size of their Unvaccinated age group. So even though they have an 88% reduction in risk of death from Delta strain, their deaths of 1,054 far exceed the 437 deaths in the Unvaccinated over 50s.
Now based on data in England up until 3 September, those under 50, had a risk of catching and dying from the delta strain in excess of 1 in 200,000. less than 1 tenth the risk of fully vaccinated over 50s and nearly less than 1 hundred the risk of the unvaccinated over 50s. There was only a total of 154 deaths from Delta in the under 50s, vaccinated and unvaccinated.
What this means is, if you vaccinate a very, very, very high risk group such that they then become just very high risk. then this group will continue to dominate the deaths even when they are nearly all vaccinated. It does not necessarily mean the vaccinations are no longer effective.
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| 1 |
SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England Technical briefing 22 3 September 2021 |
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| 2 |
Delta Infection Rate |
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| 3 |
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| 4 |
Est. Population as at 30th June 2021 |
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Vaccination Status |
Cases |
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Est. Infection Rate ( 1 in ) |
Relative Infection Rate |
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Overnight Hospitalisation |
Hospitalisation Rate % |
Relative Hospitalation Rate |
Est Pop/Hospitalisations |
Relative risk of Hospitalisation |
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Deaths |
Mortality Rate % |
Relative Mortality Rate |
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Est Pop/Death |
| 5 |
Under 50: |
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| 6 |
22,027,705 |
36.5% |
Unvaccinated |
212,989 |
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103 |
1.0 |
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3,742 |
1.7569% |
1.0 |
5,887 |
1.0 |
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99 |
0.0465% |
1.0 |
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222,502 |
| 7 |
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Vaccinated: |
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| 8 |
8,036,244 |
13.3% |
- 2 Doses |
62,403 |
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129 |
0.8 |
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521 |
0.8349% |
0.5 |
15,425 |
0.4 |
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37 |
0.0593% |
1.3 |
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217,196 |
| 9 |
5,916,332 |
9.8% |
- >=21 days Dose 1 |
74,255 |
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80 |
1.3 |
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476 |
0.6410% |
0.4 |
12,429 |
0.5 |
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8 |
0.0108% |
0.2 |
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739,541 |
| 10 |
3,147,243 |
5.2% |
- < 21 Days Dose 1 |
27,715 |
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114 |
0.9 |
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248 |
0.8948% |
0.5 |
12,690 |
0.5 |
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6 |
0.0216% |
0.5 |
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524,541 |
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| 12 |
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- Unlinked |
43,327 |
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111 |
0.2562% |
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4 |
0.0092% |
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| 14 |
39,127,524 |
64.8% |
Total Under 50 |
420,689 |
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93 |
1.1 |
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5,098 |
1.2118% |
0.7 |
7,675 |
0.8 |
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154 |
0.0366% |
0.8 |
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254,075 |
| 15 |
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| 16 |
Over 50: |
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| 17 |
968,283 |
1.6% |
Unvaccinated |
6,724 |
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144 |
0.7 |
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1,322 |
19.6609% |
11.2 |
732 |
8.0 |
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437 |
6.4991% |
139.8 |
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2,216 |
| 18 |
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Vaccinated: |
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| 19 |
19,611,831 |
32.5% |
- 2 Doses |
51,420 |
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381 |
0.3 |
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2,651 |
5.1556% |
2.9 |
7,398 |
0.8 |
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1,054 |
2.0498% |
44.1 |
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18,607 |
| 20 |
657,533 |
1.1% |
- >=21 days Dose 1 |
6,622 |
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99 |
1.0 |
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336 |
5.0740% |
2.9 |
1,957 |
3.0 |
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118 |
1.7819% |
38.3 |
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5,572 |
| 21 |
60,318 |
0.1% |
- < 21 Days Dose 1 |
277 |
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218 |
0.5 |
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36 |
12.9964% |
7.4 |
1,675 |
3.5 |
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10 |
3.6101% |
77.7 |
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6,032 |
| 22 |
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| 23 |
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- Unlinked |
6,064 |
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29 |
0.4782% |
0.3 |
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25 |
0.4123% |
8.9 |
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| 24 |
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| 25 |
21,297,965 |
35.2% |
Total Over 50 |
71,107 |
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300 |
0.3 |
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4,374 |
6.1513% |
3.5 |
4,869 |
1.2 |
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1,644 |
2.3120% |
49.7 |
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12,955 |
| 26 |
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| 27 |
60,425,489 |
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Total |
491,796 |
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123 |
0.8 |
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9,472 |
1.9260% |
1.1 |
6,379 |
0.9 |
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1,798 |
0.3656% |
7.9 |
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33,607 |
Regards
SP
