Linked article is hilarious if true
I've been reading just a little bit about this stock & the tin sector over the past week or so. I see most production is in China/Indonesia, and global production cost curves say those mines are extremely economical. Edison Group article from within the past year talks of a market equilibrium tin price of $25,600/tonne while actual 2020 prices averaged around $17,000/tonne, we are now looking at $33,000/tonne and rising so that's already out of date - Renison AISC sitting at something like $19,000/tonne so pretty comfortable there. Also have some exploration upgrade prospects, some metallurgy upgrade plans & fumer upgrade plans. Had a look at the annual report released today and there's a little on operations / broader tin macro with stuff like prices and covid but obviously it's mostly a financials document.
Tin apparently isn't as well known and exciting as certain other more visible commodities right now (fossil fuel, uranium, battery) so youtube isn't saturated with 20 minute explanations of the upside, and in fact a search for Metals X just has little 5 minute conference clips and no interviews I can see with e.g. Crux or **promotion blocked**. I see the occasional #TinBarons tag in someone's twitter name but that's about it. So, as an opportunity, still quite under the radar?
In terms of what the most important primary upside is, at a glance. I'm assuming in super broad strokes the metallurgy/fumer are just icing on the cake, success in exploration/development zones is core to achieving big multiples, and expectation is for further deficit & tin price increases but not a requirement for good performance from Metals X? Or are the last two the other way around, mine is already reasonably sized at >1% of global supply but we expect to see upside from tin price climbing with solder/electronics requirements. I see SP is 3x lower than 2017 now when tin has recovered up to +50% the 2017 prices, I assume dilution or asset sales occurred during care & maintenance period? Obviously the return to production and resumed sales to previously covid-shuttered countries has driven dip buyers up to a tidy 4 bagger across just ~12 months so congrats on that.
I'm lazy and stupid and can't do my own DD hence why I am here on HotCopper, I would be very grateful if anyone could spare a few lines of summary here
Not necessarily looking to be spoonfed an entire company breakdown but would appreciative someone pointing out any big fundamentals I missed, or any stupid questions I've asked that miss the point
(20min delay)