CHZ 0.00% 10.5¢ chesser resources limited

Ann: Becoming a substantial holder, page-13

  1. 180 Posts.
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    @GANZ - this is very good analysis. I agree with many of your insights.

    I would emphasize that it is BETTER at this stage to see any other corporate besides Barrick (or Iamgold) taking a strategic investment in CHZ. Barrick and Iamgold are the known big players in the region. Silvercorp's entry into the region is the first baby-step towards possible tension in a bidding war for CHZ down the road. Even better that I believe this is Silvercorp's first known entry into West Africa, let alone Africa! This will turn heads, both other corporates and institutions. A very interesting trend as Fortuna Silver made a surprise merger with Roxgold earlier this year -- global, silver-heavy companies now looking into West African gold plays. But this is far better for CHZ, as Roxgold did not benefit from any tension with an outright merger.

    @fbx258 makes an important point that this is likely just the beginning. How far will Silvercorp go? IMO, the ideal scenario would be for Silvercorp to stop at 9.9%, and for at least one more other non-Barrick corporate to also take up to 9.9%. Then Barrick would have to move forward all their plans and possibly act a year or two earlier, because of corporate tension with 2+ competitors. While I do not fully understand the implications, I believe when corporates take under 10%, it makes it far more likely for others to join them. So it's important to monitor how much Silvercorp ultimately owns in CHZ (though it could be fine that they go up to 19.9%, I am not sure of key differences between 9.9% and 19.9%).

    @Mozambique mick also makes a good point that bot buying not only continues, but seems to be accelerating. In case anyone missed it, there is a very clear day-by-day table of Silvercorp accumulation in CHZ at the end of the filing:

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/3646/3646548-4f33ffd10ba52f19d517fd53880eb04d.jpg

    Amazing that Silvercorp buying has been so consistent in both volume and price! But do note that it started at 500k/day, then 600k/day, and now perhaps much higher. Again, very positive to see this. Well done to Silvercorp for being opportunistic, perhaps realizing there has been plenty of liquidity (someone else selling at these levels, maybe will regret it in the future).

    The cat is out of the bag.@GANZ has mentioned the numerous upcoming catalysts (BTW, "Dec Quarter" means anytime between now and end of December, as someone asked that). I believe CHZ can leverage this surprise information (it really is a surprise that Silvercorp is the new strategic investor), and perhaps get further on-the-market buying and/or investment from other corporates AND/OR institutions in the near-term. This is a surprisingly exciting time for the company, and the next few months are crucial for setting up a big 2022.

    Cheers,

    MBG


    Last edited by MiningBookGuy: 02/10/21
 
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