Good Afternoon
Performance wise there is very little difference between Nickel Mines, BHP, RIO, FMG and the ASX200 Resources Index over the last 12 months, they have all had overbought signals and now are looking slightly oversold, notice all RSI are Sub 40. Nickel Mines is more volatile than the others, has a Beta of 1.11 (meaning you can assume Nickel Mines is 11% more volatile than the market) vs the BHP/FMG/RIO at 0.60 average beta.
Within the Top 20 Shareholders in Nickel Mines who own 75% out the stock (2.5bn shares on Issue) there has been no selling only buying during that period. An interesting and new dynamic in price action recently is the amount of shorts increasing, this has been significant over the last month post the "Indo Export Ban" news, this "news" is on no way even close to being a new law and hasn't even been approved/discussed by any Ministry in Indonesia in a substantial way. Likely the statement wont be retracted though by the Finance Ministry and the news will dissipate over time BUT it may well still hang over the stock until after Q3 earnings I think.
Shorts data only until September 27th could assume since then another 7-8mn shares done so shorts close to 60mn shares I would think. Macro issues at the moment looking decent for sell off in Global Markets maybe in October I think but for long term buyers Nickel Mines is more than compelling at current price. Assume 6 cents Full year div 2021 gets you 6.5% at 91 cents. Angel online doubles production so lets assume double dividends minus 20% risk from here gets you too 10 cents Fy2023 dividend, giving you 10.98% yield at 91 cents.
I will be buying more for sure and if I had to take a guess or make a recommendation, if I was Nickel Mines BOD of would be thinking the same thing...........a BUY BACK..........great value at these levels for a cash rich stock to announce a buy back......as a shareholder would be happy to give up the next 12 months dividends ahead of angel online to support that from BOD. Announce a 10% in 12 months Buyback, cancel the buyback stock just before the EPS doubles in late 2022......then increase the dividend 2023. Just an idea.......
Staying Long
(20min delay)