IBG SP / VALUATION THOUGHTS, page-241

"Zinc price predictions from the leading international agencies for the next few years are as follows:

• The World Bank in its commodity forecast report estimated that the average spot price for zinc will fall to $2,400 per metric ton (t) in 2022, down from $2,700/t at the end of 2021. After that, a slow growth period will start.
• The IMF's report indicated a completely different expectation: a rise from $2,828/t in the end of 2021 to $2,859 in 2022. For the following period, IMF experts expect a smooth, gradual decline. They predict the price will drop to $2,818/t by 2026.
• The forecast from Industry Innovation and Science Australia (IISA) is more similar to the World Bank's predictions: they expect a decrease in the zinc spot price from $2,686 at the end of 2021 to $2,362 in 2022, with further slow increase through 2026."

https://knoema.com/infographics/ftmgyvg/zinc-prices-forecast-long-term-2018-to-2030-data-and-charts

$1.30lb is $2866 metric t.

In summary, the World Bank and IISSA predict zinc to bottom at ~$2400, then increase, whereas the IMF predicts over $2800 by 2026.

Interestingly, LME Dec 2024 contracts are trading at $2740 (https://www.lme.com/Metals/Non-ferrous/LME-Zinc#Trading+day+summary).

According to my rough calcs (all IMHO, DYOR), a zinc price around $2400 is still NPV positive. Note, there has been a lot of historical confusion on this board re NPV. An NPV of $0 doesn't make a project valueless, it just means its earning exactly the capital investment hurdle rate, which in this case is 8%. Bottom line, even if the more dire reputable zinc price forecasts are correct, IBG will still turn a profit, assuming the DFS proves accurate.

I am confident in the future zinc price. If I wasn't, I wouldn't touch IBG. But I might well be wrong. That's investing. If all risk was removed, there'd be no reward.

All IMHO, you are responsible for your own investment decisions, so DYOR.