Hi Corncrop, dabozza, Chella thanks for your posts. I was also looking at effect of market conditions on FUM, something which seems to be often missed (incl by me) Magellan funds own a lot of NASDAQ components so I'm taking that index as a proxy. I had a look at NASDAQ and its down 5.6% over the month of September. The FUM drop of 4.1% is 1.3% outflows (disclosed) and therefore 2.8% market related. So if I read this right, Magellan funds have, overall, declined at only 50% of the overall market rate. So that's good.
Not so good is $1b of instos outflows due to "rebalancing". That could mean anything, but in this market wouldn't you expect instos to rebalance in favour of conservative funds like Magellan? Still its just 1.1% of insto funds, so that doesnt a winter make.
No denying this is a chilly breeze for MGF though.
Right now we can forget P/E and just look to yield for current valuation. You guys seem to agree on $2.50 divs for FY22. I haven't checked it in detail but will do so. What certainty do you see around this? Performance fees were down to 4.3% of earnings in FY21 so not majorly material right now but they may disappear in FY22. At $2.50 div, MGF has just hit 10% grossed up yield which is a major buy signal for me. However my gut feeling is that $2.50 might be a bit optimistic. Dabozza I will follow your link - thanks. Do you recommend FinTwit?
Market reacted badly to FUM report even though it was widely anticipated. So poor sentiment not totally priced in yet. Interesting to see if that's extended tomorrow with USA futures pointing to a weak market tomorrow.....
MFG Price at posting:
$32.52 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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