I think wave 3 is going to be determined by the success of the expansion drilling. Not sure what level has been priced into the SP currently, but if they hit the upper range (16Mt) it could help push the SP to 80, and if they exceed it (20Mt+) could create a rush to 110.
If on the lower side wave 3 may not get past the length of wave 1 (around 60c) - could get there on speculation alone but then go into a wave 4 retracement (once news is released).
There may be other catalysts that come up as well but just my thoughts.
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