FEX Valuation, page-674

fenix is looking good.
I suspect the excessive income guesses at the last 3 months income will be dashed as july deliveries were late in the month leaving and the 6 boats are still not full-YET
However enough cash generated to top up for the Divvie paid out I guess.
The negative for the shareprice is the current mine life.
Also valuing stockpiles at $15m in June with stocks then mainly at minesite from what i can see.
This could all change quickly with the extension drilling going on onsite.
I suspect they know there is more.
Why? a little comment in the resource consent mentioning analysis covers stage 2 mining license not yet applied for.
The SCN buy in also another upside although not near term income for SCN as a 30% partner if they find anything.
Just a tag on minelife if anything found.Given the time until SCN could expect to see development currently 6yrs away,,,,,,something for SCN to sell for upfront cash to carry on the hunt for gold etc.
Given the original mineplan and fenix newhaul trucking deal had truck and two trailers doing 11k runs a year at 125T capacity.
Now extra trailers turning up making quads adding another 40T capacity makes the future look good at 165T if allowed on the full trucking route to port.Full boats = lower shipping costs
Competitors for Geraldtons berth 5 use dropping off at the end of the month open up extra port capacity for export.
Incremental FOB cost for extra tons just over $69 costs from march quarter to june quarter.
The real upside Driven by world steel demand.
There are onlyTwo options to increase steel production against growing demand and high coking coal prices.
If you can't build a new steel mill TODAY you can change from 58% Fe to 64% FE feed and get 10% extra steel for the less coal cost and consumption,as your heating less waste material.
That premium will grow until BOTH steel demand and prices reduce and coking coal drops in cost,then its back to commodity grade ore prices.
Forgetting China,and the effect of its NEW STEEL EXPORT BAN,the rest of the world is going infrastructure mad.
That equals demand that can't be immediately met for steel.
What happens when India drops Grange 53%Fe ore as it looks like its just done and then moves upscale too to say 64%FE to get 20% more steel out and make real money.
Is there enough higher grade ore that isnt committed to China ?