I can't see us getting to $8 in the near future but that would definitely mean lower cut offs. Many expected the rise to where we are now to come next year... so I think it will bounce around for a while at $4-5.
Those with very low grade deposits that aren't porphyrys would be seen as extremely risky. Copper mines are hugely expensive to set up and take significant amount of time, average 8-9 years.
So a low grade deposit would still struggle to receive funding, the metrics would look horrible, especially in regards to strip ratio. Not to mention the impact on the environment. If it was only profitable at more than $5-$6 per lb I suspect the mining companies themselves would second guess whether to proceed.
spending all that time, as well as 300m-500m, on a low grade copper mine would not be a good investment, especially if the mine was forced to cease operations at under $5-$6/lb.
Who knows where the copper price would be during the mine development and once in production.
There is also the threats of copper being too expensive and people unwilling to buy. Being at the mercy of what copper smelters charge depending on their production rates, as well as substitutes such as using alumina. 50% of the worlds copper I think gets recycled also.
At the moment alumina is not a threat, neither is the recycling as it can't be used for all purposes...
There is a disconnect atm with commodities and EVs due to supply constraints. People are fazing out cobalt, adding more manganese, and lithium batteries have dropped in price over 97% in the last two decades. Yet the battery makers, the biggest companies making batteries, largely remain unprofitable or are just breaking even. Even though they have scaled to over 40gwh.
EVs have to remain cheap and competitive against ICE vehicles to support the push for EVs. Commodities such as lithium, copper and Nickel/manganese sulphate make a huge portion of costs and battery makers can't afford the raw materials. But they will showcase huge revenues so people think they are making money.
sorry, got a bit sidetracked there...
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