no one knows about transit

Which is a shame really because this could be one of the greatest buying opps in the market IMO...

Let’s have a closer look:
- Led by a man (Richard Monti) with close ties to Andrew Forrest. “Richard lead the team that built a 1.8 billion tonne resource base of nickel and cobalt through efficient and innovated resource definition and low-cost acquisition programmes. He also generated the iron ore project for Fortescue Mining in the Pilbara region which has developed into a 2 billion tonne iron ore resource”.
- Market cap at under $10m with only around 30 m shares on issue most of which held by top 20 (of which im sadly not one)
- Directors have been buying consistently in past few months (mainly Ceccon)
- Just announced scoping study to be completed by end of year
- Estimated resource target of potash is 2.5-3.8 billion tonnes at ave grade between 19 and 28% (cut-off used was 20%) tho it should be noted this needs to be proven up. Has been signed off on by a reputable company that works with the likes of Vale, Rio and BHP however.
- BHP on the look out for potash companies and Brazil and China are pretty interested in boosting their stocks of the commodity
- Close to key Intrepid Potash deposit in the US (proven area, good infra)
- Location in the US no doubt assists, with US market and Brazilian market so close

The issues: - Need gov approval (but there are some signs of confidence from the company regarding this e.g. director buying, scoping study just announced etc.)
- Funding: potash mines are not cheap. Despite this, if they have half of what they think then the big players will be climbing all over them to get a piece of the project IMO.

Bottom line: approval from US authorities and a JORC compliant resource figure would send the stock flying as it has such a small market cap and is tightly held. Obviously that is not a given and that’s where the major risk comes in, but if they get the go ahead, well, I don’t even want to speculate on possible prices.
For those wanting to do their own sums: potash goes for around US$460 per tonne (based on recent deals)

To quote cucucu from HC:
“Potash One C$220 million, with 852 million tons inferred resource
Athabasca Potash Inc C$148 million, with 424 million tons inferred resource.
... and Transit with potentially in excess of 2 billion tons inferred resource just quietly sitting here with a market cap of $6million!!!” (It’s about $9m now…)

Also note: this was in a recent Reuters article on Forbes website:
"The structure of the (potash) industry is very close to being an oligopoly. Effectively, it is a cartel-like structure, where a small number of suppliers control the entire market," said UBS analyst Alexei Morozov.
"The market really likes the potash industry because it is more unique than other basic material industries," said UBS's Morozov. "Potash is scarce, supply is tight and greenfield expansions are expensive and ... quite lengthy."
www.forbes.com/feeds/reuters/2009/09/22/2009-09-22T150958Z_01_N21309081_RTRIDST_0_POTASH-PIX.html

Please DYOR and good luck all – let’s hope your hundred bagger call is right Gizard…