that’s fascinating
I forecast trump’s deglobalisation would have these kind of effects. For 40yrs all currency pairs and supply roles were increasingly harmonised - input suppliers to China China to US
China manufacturer buyers would get part x from Thailand, part y from vietnam
now instead it’s say Vietnam ordering. Which changes all the gdp and currency relationships
currencies are the biggest variable in how trade flows between countries
By unhooking many of those harmonised pairs global trade’s muscle fibres became busted spaghetti
the world coming back toward normal at same time is an X factor stress event - max lift for reknitting trade muscles
commods were going to fire regardless. But supply chains is very idiosyncratic to the end of peak globalisation
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