housing/ fools in a fools paradise, page-7

In my opinion, the general property market turned long ago...

Even the most recently released, up-to-date figures, are way behind.

My business works with property developments that are often several years away. Many of these projects, by their very nature, have a major influence on the wider market and as such, give some insight for future activity.

Due to the nature of this work, specific changes in our office workload, has acurately predicted recent moves in the property market, such as...

1981: Increased workload, suggesting a future surge in activity...this was followed by the 80's boom.

1988: Decreased workload, indicating a decline in future activity...this was followed by a generally flat market for several years.

1995: Once again, our workload picked up substantially, indicating a future surge in activity...this of course was followed by the most recent surge in property prices.

2003: Once again we were faced with a decreasing workload, which has continued into 2004, perhaps indicating yet another decline in future activity.

So what am I expecting?

The first scenario is not so bad...

As I see it, the general property market has already experienced a mild correction, so as long as interest rates remain low, I can't see a need for it to drop too much further...rather, we are more likely to see a relatively flat period for up to 5 years.

By flat, I mean no real capital growth...therefore, actual prices may still rise, but not enough for actual growth.

The second scenario is not so nice.

Given that the property market has softened all by itself, in spite of interest rates being at all time lows, I am concerned about exactly what may transpire, once interest rates start moving again.

In this scenario, we may see a relativelty short, yet substantial decline in property prices...perhaps for no more than 2-3 years...followed by perhaps another 2 years of little or no growth.

Of course, these are just my opinions, so make of it what you will!

Cheers!