NVA 3.13% 15.5¢ nova minerals limited

Ann: Infill Drilling at Korbel Continues to Deliver, page-84

  1. 11,249 Posts.
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    A DCF gives a fairly conservative number.

    I always highlight the post-tax NPV figures and use these for the per-share value. You will see that analysts often use the pre-tax NPV.

    There is a danger with estimates that you make all the assumptions together too conservative so is a bit of a fine balance. For example I've used USD $1,600 gold instead of a current gold price ~ USD $1,790. I've also factored 5% mining dilution, however ore sorting should help to minimise mining dilution (the bulk ore sorting creates a reject stream at just 0.06 g/t gold).

    I was previously using Victoria Gold as the basis for Capital Intensity figures, however Nova have moved away from Heap Leach. Victoria Gold uses large amounts of materials handling equipment due to the heap leach pads. I think Probe Metals provides a better ballpark figure for capital intesnity.

    I don't think 3B shares on issue at production. If Snow Lake moves to USD $500M market cap and Nova owns 63% of that then that's USD $315M for their share. Nova could partly reduce their ownership in Snow Lake and come up with substantial funds to contribute to an equity component alongside debt-funding for the development of Estelle.
 
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