I did a similar analysis around 24th of September where we compared the prices after falling from the highest price reached.
This is my take of where we are, following similar pattern. As mentioned before this sector is volatile, so please dyor and be comfortable with your position. At this stage I am happy to keep holding/buying.
| STAGE 1
17th Sep | | | STAGE 4
15th Oct | STAGE 2
7th Oct | STAGE 3
13/14 Oct | |
| As at 24th September | Current - 15th October | Lowest - Around 7th October | Recovered Highest - Since 24/09 |
| Stock | Highest Price | Price | Fall Percentage | Fall Percentage | Fall Percentage | Price | Fall Percentage |
| AGE | 11.5 | 7.6 | 34 | 39 | 49 | 8.2 | 29 |
| PDN | 112 | 83 | 26 | 28 | 40 | 92.2 | 18 |
| BMN | 41 | 26.5 | 35 | 10 | 39 | 43 | -5 |
| BOE | 36 | 27.5 | 24 | 25 | 38 | 30.5 | 15 |
| PEN | 35 | 25.5 | 27 | 24 | 41 | 30 | 14 |
| VMY | 27 | 20 | 26 | 26 | 33 | 28 | -4 |
| 92e | 115 | 76.5 | 33 | 37 | 43 | 83.5 | 27 |
| DYL | 137 | 108.5 | 21 | 23 | 37 | 115 | 16 |
| LOT | 35 | 27 | 23 | 27 | 30 | 30.5 | 13 |
| VAL | 2.5 | 1.8 | 28 | 36 | 44 | 1.8 | 28 |
My take of where we are -
We are in 4th Stage of this "boom", hopefully
- Stage 1 - 17th Sep - Reached the highest price
- Stage 2 - 7th Oct - Fell highest from 17th Sep Stage 1
- Stage 3 - 13/14 Oct - Rose highest from 7th Oct Stage 2
- Stage 4 - 15th Oct - Fall from Stage 3 rise
Observations
- Except for BMN, we are at same stage as when I did the initial analysis on 24/09
- Meanwhile we dropped further, made a recovery and crossed this price and dropped slightly lower now
- Both BMN and PEN crossed their previous highs, rest trending similar.along 2 groups. Hence I feel we could rise higher as to do some catching up.
- Incidentally U price is also trending similar - Stage 1 - 50.8, Stage 2 - 37.5, Stage 3 - 48.5, Stage 4 - 47.2
What can immediate future look like
- Stage 4 - I feel we are close to bottom of this phase around 7 mark
- Stage 5 - This should be next rise and should kick of soon. In this rise we should make a higher than Stage 3 rise of 8.2. I am thinking it should be close to 9.
- There are some commentary made around Great Britain going to next stage, France collaborating with Poland etc - those news along with Sprott and U price will drive Stage 5.
Global factors are in play and as we can see, most of the U shares are trending similarly. Chartists will also confirm that.
At micro level we can see some different groups forming. Micro factor for each share will drive certain stages. Ours will come in big way in November when the
Disclosure - Reason I am looking at everything is that although my largest holding in U sector is AGE, I do hold some other ones as well. Also at this stage nearly all shares including U price is trending similar. May be a feature of the "boom" itself. All the best and lets see if we see a Stage 5 shortly.
