A lot of people will be tempted to sell out on this sudden surge in AGY, as arguably the indicators are extended well past the overbought territory. This has its inherent risks and can catch yourself with your pants down if you don't know what you're doing.
As chartists know however, once a sudden surge is there and a real rerate is underway the underbought / overbought stats aren't as relevant, but moreso fib extension and retracements levels and bollinger bands. Waves can push through overbought territories for quite some time (sometimes)
If i had sold some shares every time AGY went outside its upper bollinger band bracket in conjunction with hitting resistance lines, and overbought Stoch levels and bought back in after a retrace i'd be a multi millionare by now. But i haven't.
Going to have a crack at selling 10% of holdings at milestones:
-23.5c (done)
-26c
-28c
-30c
for the duration of the 1 single wave, and stop at a retrace.
AGY in its entire history has never made gains during a wave and not retraced at least 50% of that value in the near future.
assuming the 50% retrace, this strategy im going to attempt will bare the following results upon buy-in back at the 50% retrace:
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 | Column 4 |
|---|
| 1 | Target | 50% Retrace | Breakeven | Profit in Shares |
|---|
| 2 | 25 | 21.5 | 23.5 | 12,000 |
|---|
| 3 | 26 | 22 | 24.75 | 32,500 |
|---|
| 4 | 27 | 22.5 | 24.75 | 26,000 |
|---|
| 5 | 28 | 23 | 25.75 | 46,500 |
|---|
| 6 | 29 | 23.5 | 25.75 | 37,000 |
|---|
| 7 | 30 | 24 | 26.75 | 59,500 |
|---|
Just a little experiment, we'll see what happens! Have room to extend the strategy up until 40c target within 1 wave. Past there the strategy will be looking grim.
This is a risk and a gamble, but with the calculated strategy the odds are extremely in my favour. Some of you despise "in and outers" but hey im going to have a crack, i've done my research and can't blame me for having a go. Cheers.
here's the chart, notice my first two selling points are R1 and R2.
Note: the fib chart is only up until today's price, it could go further.
View attachment 3707222w/ Bollinger Bands
View attachment 3707225
