Ha Ha, I liked the comment '
ravings of an old speculator', good one. I will entertain you with another one
I have done a lot of reading around Uranium itself, and also around the last bull market. Although I did not play that time and also have not gone through the charts/graphs/SP how it trended. So my knowledge is not first hand but based on readings I have done where others have analysed and commented.
At a high level, I consider 3 things:
- Cycle - A cycle will be one major rise and corresponding major drop
- Major Stage - Within each cycle we will have two major stages - one representing the rise and other the fall - Rise Major Stage and Fall Major Stage
- Minor Stage - These are components of each Major Stage (In IT as we would think a Major and a Minor Release)
There are few things I would consider for a
Rise Major Stage:
- The Rise Major Stage will finish AFTER it has crossed the high of the previous cycle
- The Rise Major Stage will finish AFTER reaching a certain high we see a SIGNIFICANT decline when it enters Fall Major Stage
Similarly for a
Fall Major Stage:
- The Fall Major Stage will finish AFTER it looks like it has bottomed out in that stage
- The Fall Major Stage DOES NOT need to go below previous low. In fact, because we are in a "boom", it is not expected to go below that.
- Once the Fall Major Stage is complete, we enter the next cycle.
Minor Stages (within Major Stage)
- We will see local cycles happening with each Major Stage
- These would represent Minor Rise and Minor Fall - both leading towards completion of a Major Stage.
Lets see where we are with AGE -
| SHARE | DATE COMPLETED | CYCLE NUMBER | MAJOR STAGE NUMBER | MAJOR STAGE PRICE | MINOR STAGE NUMBER | MINOR STAGE PRICE |
|---|
| 1 | | | | | | | |
|---|
| 2 | AGE | 17/09/2021 | 1 | 1.1 | 11.5 | | |
|---|
| 3 | AGE | 7/10/2021 | 1 | 1.2 | 5.9 | | |
|---|
| 4 | AGE | 14/10/2021 | 2 | 2.1 | | 2.1.1 | 8.2 |
|---|
| 5 | AGE | 15/10/2021 | 2 | 2.1 | | 2.1.2 | 7 |
|---|
| 6 | AGE | Current | 2 | 2.1 | | 2.1.3 | 7.3 |
|---|
Based on this we are in Cycle 2, in the first stage when we see a Rise. It has to cross 11.5 to complete. Couple of shares BMN and VMY have crossed their previous highs. I had roughly 5% of my U portfolio in each of those which I sold just before it was reaching previous high. I thought it will go in sync with others, but that was not to be. It just shows its so difficult to pick bottom and high. At no stage I touch at least two thirds of my shares. But do play with the other third. I had some good wins but although I made some good coin on these two, from a trading perspective I could have made more if I had held. So it balances out, for some it would be best to just hold if the belief is in the "boom".
Of all that I have read, the expectation is that we will have around 10 cycles (so 20 Major Stage, 10 Rise, 10 Fall). We are in Cycle 2, on the ascend.
Although we did not have a great day today, it was still good. Last few days of consolidation on the low 7s has set up the platform for next major rise. In the last 5 weeks or so, we have had at least 4 days where roughly we have had 25% increase in a day. So we are used to big rises in a day. Another one is due soon. Bring it on. Please dyor.
(20min delay)