20c + close and we have a breakout - Target 27-30c, page-40

Yep - I tend to agree with Varco. The coal price has run up in preparation for what's anticipated to be a "cold" northern hemisphere winter so realistically the price should stay strong from now through to around January / February. From there it's a guessing game really - on the plus side, its very difficult to get new coal mines approved so current producers should benefit from limited supply growth into slightly increasing demand.

My hold position is until around January / February so half year results - it'll be big cashflow generation, paying down debt and significant profits. All a really good story.

Things that could derail it are coal price falls for whatever reason, or management decisions that add a layer of risk to the business (Guinean IO and Bauxite).

My price target is about 60 cents, $450m market cap or a P/E of 2 to 3 times (assuming $150m profit, although could be higher if coal prices stay strong post Jan 2022)