Good to see some conversation happening on the TSI thread. Thanks for contributions.
Yes agree re the LRK comparison - But I like the fact they are looking at a leader in the space and trying to copy some of their success (even if the product isn't as good).
My bigger concern is how is grainshaker going, there shouldn't be inventory shortfall in vodka (i.e. no maturation time lag etc) - I fall back to Vic and Syd lockdowns playing havoc with the space, unfortunate big marketing and promo spend on Aus Open and other events hasn't stuck. As i eluded to, its a take 2 now really.
Re the future earnigns, the $100m in 5 years is a target fust for Ned Whisky sales.. Further $50m in vodka and $100m in Agave sales... So $250m at 25% sits at $62.5m. Less $25m overheads - lets call it 40m.. Net assets $60m (this increase to $80m with investment and Depn at 10% - so $8m p.a.) Leaves $32m, less tax at 30% = $22.5 NPAT at 15x $337.5m mkt cap.. Vs currently $129m (with all stock form placement issued and trading at $1.80)... 250% upside in 5 years...this valuation assumes there is no growth beyond 5 years so conservative valuation metric if you can see $250m in revenue coming.
Another valuation is multiple of sales... Say 3x sales (so 3x $250m) is $750m valuation. This captures in the longer term upside ($750m valuation is 33x the NPAT above, so implies ongogin growth).
Anyhow, that's why ill top up in the rights issue, and probably average down further if it trades circa $1.60....
Alot more upside than downside from these levels, especially with the CR risk now fully priced in (i.e. its happened) .
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