What can I say. Incredible information. I went into Physics, really regret not going into Mining. I have a 1000 more questions, but I will read that 10 more times and try to figure out myself. I wonder how many posters here have this level of understanding on the process. And I really hope all appreciate the depth you have gone into.
I think for me, the question that I am trying to answer (and I am really trying to sharpen my forecasting skills after reading Superforecasting - Highly recommended) is what is the % chance that we hit name plate production on 4.5Mtpa, 10Mtpa, and 20Mtpa production. It should literally be the million dollar question for most here.
Hence my interest specifically in Ore Reserves... If (as a first principles argument) it we can with some degree of confidence determine what will be the most likely Mtpa output and the lithium thematics proceed as expected, modelling future value becomes much simpler. So coming back to the sheet I posted earlier.
Extremely good and not impossible scenario...
I feel like this is not an unreasonable set of circumstances that would lead to a 20Mtpa output (I refer to this as it seems like the best case scenario - and if I can reach the best case scenario on conservative estimates it's a good start). I think a 16 year LOM would be enough to justify a 20Mtpa output? But that's just a blatant guess knowing that 30 years is probably to long to project modelling with respect to Lithium demand.
A pretty realistic (if not low ball) scenario IMO....
I don't have enough information regarding the remaining pegmatites (some are underwater I believe), so presuming they are off the table. Even at this point in time, 10Mtpa seems like a very doable choice.
I need to expand this and figure out what ownership looks like in regards to AVZ. I know we have 100% ownerships of expansion but need to get stuck into what that very specifically means, as that could be the difference between 10Mtpa and 20Mtpa.
No questions this time around, just thinking out loud for the most part. Hoping people will jump in, expand and correct.
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