ASX Today, page-11209

Well thanks for the reference Kicker had no intention of posting here but since you so cordially referenced my post I feel invited to respond...

Yep she (LTR) is inflated like a giant balloon IMHO. I wish it wasn't because then AVZ should be by all rights be double LTR's MCap @ 7b ....but the market will adjust with time as it always does and I can wait till then. So we will see if this lofty nose bleeding LTR mcap can be sustained at this early stage of the project or whether reality strikes bringing it back down towards a more realistic Mcap for its project stage, exceptionally deep resource and no offtakes landed.

Don't get me wrong I think LTR will eventually justify a market cap around here but not until it starts prod in a couple of years from now. By my reckoning I'd think the reality check moment will come a little after underwhelming LTR DFS numbers are released (underwhelming in comparison to Peer co's) to market and analysts have had a chance to compare.

General investment theory I remember is to sell the overvalued and buy the undervalued to maximize your returns. For me that would mean be out before the DFS lands and into something about to rally. AVZ on the other hand is days away from all finance being secured, a granted mining License and construction starting before years end. And we know that PLS rallied (35c to $1.20) for 3 months after those three milestones were achieved as can be seen in the chart below of PLS in 2017 (Looks closely at Anns in red ) .

So which would I hold a overinflated LTR with likely underwhelming DFS coming or AVZ about to build with a highly likely rally on the way and a 10mt/yr BFS by years end?

No doubt this post will bring out all the LTR flag bearers frothing at the mouth to rubbish my post, my arguments and sadly my character and AVZ ...however once their done hyperventilating think through the logic Ive pointed out ... Perhaps I'll come back in a few months and see what the relative price moves have been as I expect AVZ will outperform and LTR will underperform going forward in that time frame.