OPT (ASX) Cash on hand

Originally posted by PigRace: ↑

Hi stockrock,

Some more thoughts regarding your reckoning on funding.

I add back (in bold) some of the text pasages from page 9 in the IPO prospectus I originally had skipped for easier reading purposes:
"We estimate thet the net proceeds[...] in this offering will be US$116.4 MN (or approximately US$134.3 MN if the underwriters'option to purchase additional ADSs is excercised in full). [...]We intent to use the net proceeds from this offering, together with our existing cash and cash equivalents, to advance the clinical development of OPT-302 for the treatment of wet AMD, including the initiation of and reporting of topline data from two pivotal Phase 3 trails."

So how much of the up to US$18 MN from this additional ADS's option did they actually raise?

Let's look at page 55 of the annual report 2020-2021:
"The Company issued 7,493,600 pre-funded warrants for US$11,546,029 net of issue costs in respect of the US initial public offering. The pre-funded warrants[...] are exercisable to ADS's at an exercise price of US$0.00001 per pre-funded warrant on a one for one basis with no expiry date. During the year all pre-funded warrants were exercised, converting into ADS's."

US$116.4 MN + US$11.5 MN = US$128 MN net proceeds rased in full

What was the existing cash and cash equivalents just before the IPO?
Existing cash as of June 30th 2020: AU$62 MN
CFO July 1st - October 20th: AU$16 MN
Existing cash at time of IPO: AU$46 MN (US$32 MN)

US$128 MN + US$32 MN = US$160 MN in total cash and cash equivalents available right after IPO on October 20th 2020.

So how much cash do they plan to use on the most important two Phase 3 trials?

Let's look at page 72 of their IPO propspectus:
"We expect to use the net proceeds from this offering, together with our existing cash and cash equivalents, as follows: approximately US$130-135 MN to advance the clinical development of OPT-302 for the tretament of wet AMD, including the initiation of and reporting of topline data from two pivotal Phase 3 clinical trials. [...]The remaining proceeds for other R&D activities [...] and for working capital and general corporate purposes."

US$160 MN vs US$130-135 MN. That might not look overly generous, rather tight but eventually doable. Particularly as you are left with only US$20-25 MN (plus future inflows from the R&D tax regime) for all "other R&D, working capital and generral corporate purposes" until data read-out. Meaning next two years. Assuming no delays on your timeline.

So what was the communicated timeline back then in October 2020?

Let's first look at the press release ("Successful meeting with FDA and EMA on P3 trail design") from August 21st 2020, just 8 weeks before the CR:
"The company is on-track to initiate Phase 3 trials in early 2021."

Let's then look at a comment on page 9 of their presentation held August 6th 2020 in NY, just 10 weks before the CR:
"Trial initiation expected early 2021. Top-line and Final Data Readout expected 1H 2023."

Today we stand at "full recruitment by September 2022" and "topline data in 2H 2023". The later necessarily meaning 4Q 2023, eventually very YE 2023.

So the slippage in timeline compared to original expectations at the time of IPO is somewhere between 6-9 months.

Having raised less funds than hoped for plus the delays make it hard to imagine sufficient funding.

Just my thinking.

Expand

excellent post although I think they may not be waiting until topline 2023 for corporate action because results will be widely known from the inside as more and more patients are recruited etc etc

funding until 2023 of course is questionable but who's to say a deal doesn't fall their way before this ? If so, there would be a re-rate and even if raising, it would be at a higher price

for me, they have the funding to see them progress up the value chain, over the next 12 months or so, but whether or not that is recognised by the market is another thing entirely !

GLTAH