My analysis reads like this ......
a) NHC will sell coal until 2030, then stop (no Mt Arthur).
b) Average sale price over this entire period of USD 110 (ups & downs)
c) 8m tonnes py
d) NPAT py of $300m (v conservative on costs)
e) Cost of total closedown / remediation / scrapping of $2b in 2030 (v conservative)
f) Assets sold at end (Brisb port/loader, ag land, stock) of $500m
f) Discount rate of 5%
All this results in a conservative today SP of $3.30.
If coal prices drop from average USD110 to USD90, then SP should be $2.80.
Hard to lose money with this one, unless govt intervention in all things coal.
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Last
$4.18 |
Change
-0.050(1.18%) |
Mkt cap ! $3.522B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $4.22 | $4.22 | $4.13 | $9.027M | 2.165M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3672 | $4.16 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $4.18 | 7644 | 3 |
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| Last trade - 16.10pm 31/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
| NHC (ASX) Chart |