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flukeymg

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28/10/21

18:11

Post #: 57155312
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Originally posted by steve10: ↑

When SP peaked at $1.60 = $1,372.15M MC - $125.8M cash* = $1,246.35M / $20.8M revenue run rate* = x59.9 multiple.
*Cash & revenue run rate via Q3 FY21 4C

SP then bottomed at 85c = $728.95M MC - $125.8M cash = $603.15M / $20.8M = x29 multiple.

The Q4 FY21 4C was then released showing $35.6M revenue run rate & $120.6M cash resulting in the SP rising to $1.38.

At $1.38 SP = $1,183.5M MC - $120.6M cash = $1,062.9M / $35.6M = x29.8 multiple.

SP then dropped to $1.035 = $887.6M MC - $120.6M cash = $767M / $35.6M = x21.5 multiple.

After the Q1 FY22 4C showing $84M revenue run rate & $108.8M cash the revenue multiple is very low.

$990.5M MC - $108.8M cash = $881.7M / $84M = x10.5 multiple.

The SP will move sooner or later back to the x20-30 range.

$84M x 21.5 similar to the prior low = $1,806M + $108.8M cash = $1,914.8M MC or about $2.23 SP.

$84M x 30 = $2,520M + $108.8M = $2,628.8M MC or about $3.06 SP.

Allowing for 10% QOQ growth the $21M will be $30.75M in Q1 FY23 x 4 = $123M revenue run rate.

$123M x 20 = $2,460M + $90M cash = $2,550M MC or about $2.97 SP.

$123M x 30 = $3,690M + $90M cash = $3,780M MC or about $4.40 SP.

SP is currently undershooting & can possibly overshoot the x20-30 range. It got as high as x59.9 during SP peak.

$990.5M MC currently - $108.8M cash = $881.7M / $123M revenue run rate in 12 months = x7.1 & it should be somewhere between x20-30 thus there is x3-4 upside during next 12 months.

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Best post on this thread in quite a while....

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Cold Gold, page-27

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Cold Gold, page-27

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