"The nature of dealing with the NHS is that you will always have a big increase in spending commitments running up to the end of the fiscal year ending 5th April, use or lose it."
Your comment implies that the lack of growth that has occurred in the Q1 just released is something that occurs annually, every year because of the NHS's funding commitments.
Based on the following, your comment doesn't seem to hold true.
| SQ17 | SQ18 | SQ19 | SQ20 | SQ21 |
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| 1 |
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| 2 | 1.5 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 6.6 | CAGR | 34% |
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| 3 | 11% | 229% | -5% | 34% | 2% | Average | 54% |
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The Average PcP growth for the September Quarter has been 54%, whilst the
CAGR is at 34%.
Compare how the SQ has grown for Alcidion in terms of top line growth over time.
The business's growth needs to really be considered at all points in time, not just the seasonal periods.
Because as I'm sure you're aware, the business has operating costs that fall due in all quarters and hence needs to develop to a point to which cashflow can be generated on a sustainable basis
all year round. The real reason I brought up Alcidion's valuation is because the company trades on a price to sales multiple of >11x.
It needs to growth it's operating cash flows at a steep rate to justify that valuation. It becomes harder to see how the business is going to do that when the costs are growing at 31% PcP and receipts only at 2%...
