annual report, page-6

Yes the bulk of current sales are in Oz. Currently they produce around 17000T and in their 2015 plan they want to build to 30000T. Thats arguably growing upwards of 12% per annum. They state that they export between 5% and 10% and that they expect this to remain in that band when they complete the 2015 project. In some of the earlier presentations they suggested 10% as current and 10% as 2015 target. The fact that they are now (In the recent presentation) putting a band means IMO that currently its closer to 5% and in 2015 they hope its closer to the 10% target.

However inconsistently they say they should be able to "own" the salmon markets of Asia if they can get their operations to world best practice levels. If that's the case than one would expect an increase in exports. Nor can I see who they are going to take market share away from to increase their sales by 10% and not have a greater export market. So I must assume that they are suggesting that they will grow the consumption of salmon in Australia relative to other meals or fish. Of this I am not convinced that 12% is possible.

Personally I dont think they know what the mix will be if they ratchet up to 30,000T and export will only be truly viable if they get to be best practice producing and in a nutshell that is cost per kg at wharf. As Norway seems to be at best pricing and practice at wharf thats a challenge.Norway are considered to be good and responsible producers so whilst we may think our product is better I would question whether that is so for overseas markets.

In reality the tree hugger community also have issues about farming of a species of fish that is not natural to this area and also the whole concept of fish farming etc etc. So whilst the product is healthy there are comments that these fish can and have escaped and they as carnivorous can affect the balance etc etc. Personally it gets too much for my brain.

So I think that to hit these 2015 numbers they really will have to have a bigger export market than at present and yes the bulk will always be eaten here. Whether that is 75% or 85% shouldnt affect the business.