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3.13%

15.5¢ australian vintage ltd

Ann: AVL 2021 Annual Report, page-10

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Chao88

624 Posts.

63

06/11/21

10:20

Post #: 57364813
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Originally posted by Chao88: ↑

Dividend discount model perspective around 70c to 80c. I get this valuation assuming a modest uptick in next years dividend to 3c.This is based on a 35% payout ratio on earnings of 21-22 mill or 8.6cps.

Using the above projection I get 0.03/(0.1-0.06) = 0.75 or 75c hence my range. My basis of assumption assumes your cost of capital or minimum return is 10% with AVG delivering a medium term compound growth rate of 6%.

If you used a discount cashflow model based on earnings with the above numbers, I get a slightly higher valuation of around 85c assuming we discount out 10 years with a discount rate of 10% and compound growth of 6%.

However, free cashflow earnings and non-cash earnings differ materially and the general consensus appears AVG has reasonably higher free cash earnings + the strong balance sheet with a healthy NTA I would give the valuation an additional 15% - 20% buffer which brings a range of 98c to 102c

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Just ran a Discounted cashflow model on excel, works out to be 11 years with earnings at T = 0 with 22 Mill to arrive at total present value of discounted cashflows of 217 million/shares on issue = a DCF per share of 86c

AVG Price at posting: 83.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last 15.5¢		Change -0.005(3.13%)		Mkt cap ! $51.06M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
15.5¢	16.0¢	15.5¢	$5.361K	34.36K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	36612	15.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
17.0¢	72000	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	36612	0.155
10	168298	0.150
3	116896	0.145
4	56600	0.140
5	109764	0.135

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.170	72000	2
0.175	118263	3
0.180	332142	4
0.190	2800	1
0.195	65300	2

Last trade - 15.44pm 02/10/2024 (20 minute delay)

AVG (ASX) Chart