China is the only significant IO importer in the world. It produced (until recent cutbacks) around 8x as much steel as the US uses. China has already cut production by multiples of the total annual US steel demand. China is rapidly ramping up domestic IO supply. Around 150 million tonnes (and growing) of IO is stockpiled at Chinese ports.
So none of your predictions has any basis in reality.
Iron ore price, page-40338
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