Hi @rolly777
Yes indeed that was the bounce. It would have been nice to see a more violent spike down and bounce off the 50% or 61.8%, but 38.2% is one of the three we were looking for. It's given us a clear validated support for the short term with a clear bounce that the bulls jumped on. The D1 target of this (minor) move comes in at 0.635, just a stones throw away from the major target of that 0.645 zone we've been aiming at for nearly 6 months now, and has been on our charts since Nov last year. Weve closed out our week near our highs, both ATH and weekly candle, this is a really strong bull indicator for the next couple of sessions in my opinion. I expect to see us finally hit the first major new target(0.645) since 0.425
Hourly
Weekly
As for the other discussion about $2.70, for the sake of clarity I will revisit that point of analysis. At the end of last year and for the following 4 months we were in a drawn out consolidation phase. The market does not like to sit idle, especially for such a protracted period. As a result when we broke out from 0.091(the lows of the consolidation zone) we rallied hard all the way to 0.495. From 0.091 to 0.495 is an additional 440%(approx) on top of our share price at the time. The reason for highlighting this is simply to show that after a period of consolidation, by probability, you can expect a breakout that is usually relative in size. Small consolidation - small breakout. Big consolidation - big breakout. Are breakout sizes relative to one another? Not in my experience. Does the 440% have any hidden technical meaning? No, it's just how it turned out for that major bull run. Can we use that to extrapolate a future target from our breakout? No. All it is shows us (in a history of consolidations on any given chart) is that when there's a protracted consolidation there's a breakout move (in either direction but we are talking IMU so it's up) relative in strength. We've just had a 5 month breather (though structurally quite different to the one at the beginning of the year) and as such we can expect, by probability, a good bull run to follow. Make of it that what you will. No, I don't expect to see +440% or $2.70 from this- there is not now, nor was there originally any suggestion that we would.
As for targets, I agree there are some rediculous ones posted here, but only from a technical analysis point of view, not a fundamental point of view. Fundamentally I think we are all so very fortunate to be in IMU, I don't see how one can one put a price target on what we have. Impossible at this stage. Technically, I have only 2 validated targets, the same two I've been talking about in most of my analysis for nearly 6 months. 0.645 zone and 0.740. There are many other levels above these that are already on the chart thanks to Fibonacci, but they are not validated targets, just key levels where resistance will be found and as we move higher the potential to become a validated target. They only become a target when there is a technical reason to validate it: primarily either a new D from an A-B-C fib move, a break and retest of an existing D1 to give a D2(D2 to D3 etc) or a MA method signal. These 3 signals are all high probability. The 0.645 zone is a combination of many, 0.740 is a D1 of our biggest A-B-C to date and in my opinion both of these are high probability in the short and medium terms respectively.
Hi @Katana
Thankyou for your suggestion of a disclaimer because like most, I am not here to give advice, I would expect anyone who trades using any of my analysis to manage their own risk. I only recal 3 or 4 occasions where I've suggested a trade(high probability) that I would personally take, and when I have done so I have always included the relevant risk management. This can be seen as recently as this week where I suggested in an update that I would be moving my soft SL to 0.480 just under the two key support levels. I have always indicated that my analysis is never a given, it's all probability and I only every post the forward looking analysis with what in my opinion is the highest probability. The reason that the analysis in my posts appears to be so accurate to so many is because I filter out anything that is not a high probability move.
For those who are interested in where my stop would be now for this trade to 0.645, it would be at 0.530 just under the 0.618% fib. My stop for the trade to 0.740 would be still holding at 0.480
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