tpi outlook

Comparing some of the key indicators impacting TPI's performance between the following periods:

Jan08 to Sep08 - good times for TPI
Oct08 to Jun09 - very bad for TPI
and Now

Indicators

· Revenue from sale of recycling
· AUD/NZD exchange rate
· NZD/AUD exchange rate
· Price of oil

Curbside recycling index

Jan08 to Sep08 index was around 15,500
Oct08 to Jun09 index fell 40% to around 9,500
Now index is 13,300 down only 14% from the good times



Trevor Coonan's email response to Zahn put a large focus on revenue from their scrap so hopefully this index is reflective of this revenue.


USD/AUD

Jan08 to Sep08 AUD/USD average around 93c
Oct08 to Jun09 AUD/USD fell 30% to around 65c
Now AUD/USD just under 90c down only 3% from the good times

Again Trevor's email made mention of the exchange rate so a strong AUD will hopefully go a long way to improving TPI's profit.


NZD/AUD

Jan08 to Sep08 NZD/AUD was around 84cAUD
Oct08 to Jun09 NZD/AUD fell 5% to around 80cAUD
Now NZD/AUD holding between 82-83cAUD

New Zealand showing some signs of coming out of their recession.

In 2008 around 20% of TPI's operation was in New Zealand. I'm not sure what it is now however based on the Christchurch, Auckland and Waiheke tender wins I would imagine its now more than 20% so we need a strong New Zealand dollar.


AUD Oil Price

Jan08 to Sep08 AUD oil around $120
Oct08 to Jun09 AUD oil around $75 down approx 38%
Now AUD oil around $80 still well down approx 33%

No great news here unfortunately.


During Jan08 to Sep08 TPI's market capital was over $3b its now only $1.5b. During this time TPI's revenue has increased, debt has been reduced and interest rates have fallen. The big negative is their margins were squeezed so hopefully the improvement in the above indicators suggest a margin improvement.

This time last year TPI gave shareholders an update on earnings I wonder if we will see something similar this year.

If things continue to improve like they are and with Warburg Pincus on board I think TPI's market cap will quickly return to $3b+ (SP over $3).

Looking forward to TPI's promise of keeping shareholders informed.