Hi @craig321
I don’t see anything in your post to substantiate a price valuation one way or another, maybe based on worse case price below.
Here is simpler detail based on data contained in above post:
- Worst case: Meets forecast of $US92.5B in FUM and PE Ratio realigns to Magellan’s current 15.5 times PE Ratio, $1.80 share price (markets have to tank big time and will impact all Fund Managers). I guess PE Ratios could fall to 15 times and maybe similar to Platinum at 10 times PE Ratio, but then we would be seeing Magellan at $22.50. This is not probable.
- Current trend case: Exceeding forecast to $US110B in FUM and 16.74 PE Ratio is maintained against exceeding forecast, $2.37 share price
- Re-rating case (let’s call this “the cream on top range”): Based on Magellan historical PE Ratio when it was growing at similar rates to GQG now. 2012 was 22 times and 2019/2021 was 30 times is:
22x14.2c=$3.12
30x14.2c=$4.26
In terms of good news being already priced in, based on PE Ratios it is far from that. Compare to PNI (50 x EPS) and AEF (160 x EPS), GQG is very good value at 16.74 x EPS (FYI - GQG grows FUM on average between 1 and 2 AEF’s a quarter and has just under triple AEF’s profit margin) *see FUM table from previous post.
Best of Luck
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Last
$2.84 |
Change
-0.110(3.73%) |
Mkt cap ! $8.387B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$2.90 | $2.91 | $2.80 | $8.175M | 2.855M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
4 | 20511 | $2.83 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$2.84 | 4721 | 4 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 1961 | 2.830 |
1 | 1800 | 2.820 |
2 | 15000 | 2.810 |
14 | 33575 | 2.800 |
4 | 13350 | 2.790 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
2.870 | 20650 | 2 |
2.900 | 11767 | 2 |
2.930 | 1700 | 1 |
2.940 | 2450 | 2 |
2.970 | 500 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 02/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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