ohyeah lets assume it is BHP or even FMG/RIO if BHP put in a bid for what many here think is a good start ie $1.50 which is 30% above $1.35, then I would think 3 possible scenarios occur:
1) CRM do nothing, as well all other hopeful's, which means $1.50 will be the selling price
2) CRM (which is Chinese Govt backed) save face with the rest of the world and offer a counter-bid via scheme of arrangement. Remember the chinese have been stiffed by BHP for years now and if they publicly let this go, then it sends a message. Chinese corporate culture all about "face". If this occurs, we will see well over $2 IMO as in the scheme of things 4100m extra is nothing.
3) CRM start buying UMC shares on mkt profusely to get a blocking stake. CRM may then buy THX's shares for $1.50 (matching BHP bid) to get to 20%. This could be achieved via THX selling shares on-mkt and CRM buying sahres on mkt, that way no FIRB approval needed (not sure if that works with FIRB but y not?)
I hope 2 occurs and CRM go pound for pound with BHP. Throw FMG into the mix and its GAME ON.
Question is, if its BHP and solely BHP, why is it not a JV vehicle with RIO buying????
UMC Price at posting:
91.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held