this is serious lets hope, page-69

So we have:

1) No other iron ore juniors in trading halts or suspensions - so unlikely that a merger proposal from one of them.

2) Thundelarra - also not in trading halt / suspension - so not a particpant in any deal yet. They would be first party that any bidder would approach to get an initial blocking stake through a pre bid agreement. Although, if a merger scheme route - might be handy to know Thundelarra can vote (ie don't lock them up beforehand) - and they would likely support any takeout through a cash scheme.

3) BHP & Rio - still working through their JV. UMC resource itself would not be of major interest to them as could secure effective economic interest through minegate sale type agreement if they wanted - as no other party can realistically get the Railway ore to port in medium term. Also, Railway is marra mamba ore all below the water table which can be tricky and therefore the significant other drier marra mamba resources on the Mining area C tenement (reported resources and down dip potential) will be higher priority for BHP - and last many decades. Although Rio now handling wet marra mambas at Hope Downs apparently OK - and 100mt OK grade ore right next to railway line may entice them. BHP / Rio would probably like to have the UMC tenements for logistical reasons (rail) - as if UMC get a mining lease it may disrupt BHP / Rio rail plans (unsure of this). The Railway resources and potential on some of the northern areas will obviously still carry some longer term value to them though. But still - an access / minegate sale type agreement would be a more typical route to go down for them. Eventually, they will likely be forced to carry third party ores - especially if they form JV.

4) FMG - wildcard - if thinking a long way ahead - but not in a very strong position at present - and also wary of wet marra mamba ores - given Cloudbreak experiences.

5) CRM most likely - obvious interest in building position in Pilbara - so perhaps they have sought to recut the deal - with greater equity interest. However, based on recent decisions and guidance, FIRB would closely consider any control transaction or full takeout. Still not sure of what their actual rail plan would be.

6) Others - Vale, Japanese etc - wildcards - but also - what would their rail access plan be?

Whatever it is - will be interesting for the Pilbara iron ore industry.