I've explained it in detail all along the way. I've been very open and transparent in my thinking and actions with my shares. Since mid last year I was expecting fantastic results by mid this year (you can go back and see many of my posts discussing it if you feel inclined), and indeed, the quarterly in July seemed spectacular, though I was expecting a greater market reaction to it, which puzzled me for a month or so. Then I realised how bad the next quarterly was going to look, and while I still believed in the fundamentals of the company, I sold most of my shares on the expectation of figures which looked bad and would bring a bad market response. As it turned out, the figures were even worse than I expected, and I lost confidence in the fundamentals. I'm still guessing the fundamentals are probably good and just seem bad because of seasonality, but I'm far less sure than before, so while I sold out planning to buy back in at a cheaper price (and with an average sale price in the mid 20s I certainly could do that now if I wanted to), it seems a better bet to wait for more compelling figures which confirm organic growth.
I'm not exactly 'very negative' - as I said, I still think it's more likely that there actually is organic growth than not and that it's just difficult to see it, but obviously I have to accept that last year I got my predictions wrong because this time last year I was expecting that by this time this year we would be around 60c, which clearly was a bad call which I made based on the assumptions I describe above (expectations of better figures in the first quarter of this financial year). I'm not sure how management came to the calculations of their organic growth figures given recently, but it seems it may have been... well... calculated using methods I wouldn't have personally chosen.
To put your 'very negative' comment into appropriate light, I have always maintained that while I am less sure than before, I still expect TNT to be a good long term investment, but the way I see things, if something is almost certainly going to drop by more than 20% I might as well sell it, and as we were discussing yesterday, I think it's better to 'buy at the knee' than 'but at the toes'. I certainly wouldn't call myself 'very negative' about TNT and never have been.
I'm expecting some flowery language and optimistic concepts from management tomorrow which may or may not boost the share price short term, but medium term probably won't carry much weight (unless they have an ace up their sleeves, in which case I might be jumping back in tomorrow). They may have it, but I struggle to imagine what it might be, other than saying they believe organic growth is evident (market will probably remain sceptical), they plan to expand into five eyes nations (yawn, been hearing it for too long, talk is cheap, and the market doesn't like them making acquisitions now anyway), possibly guidance which I can't imagine being received well since last quarter was below previous guidance as will be the current quarter (!!!), and some other chatter about cybersecurity etc etc. Of course, they might do a brilliant job of putting together a good show, or they may actually have some sort of unanticipated news, but basically, six months ago I was positive because there seemed to be excellent organic growth and guidance of a RRR of $150MPA, and now they've failed to meet that figure once and will fail again this quarter and will probably fail to achieve it on average for the current financial year despite it being guidance for the RRR at the end of last financial year. Did Sdaji change or did TNT change? Well, let's just say that TNT's figures certainly aren't turning out as beautifully as we were lead to believe they would be and if there's light at the end of the tunnel, there's a fair bit of tunnel to get through before we reach it.
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