WPL@$30, page-3715

There is one thing we should consider when talking about $30 $40 price target

1. the current spot prices are caused by once off factors that are unlikely to repeat itself in the medium term.

call it a black swan event which is once off but the probability of being repeated diminishes in second and third year

2. Woodside as shown in latest updates are seeing a natural decline in their reserves, so whilst this stock averaged $30 in the past decade. Those reserve in question is no longer the same, hence the discount is based on the reserve available.

3. execution risk of investment and so forth is something that’s being actioned to solve point 2. But the amount invested is being questioned if the expected return can be maintained at the similar levels. Expected returns is deteremined by demand and price of cause, which is anyone guess


not to dampen the mood here, we are using $30 as the historic price point anchoring to value Woodside. It maybe a mistake doing so based on those points above