@Jonotr0n I would say conservative- and rightly so. Their DCF over the next 10 years has essentially assumed 25% annual bottom line growth excluding the next 2 years. My thinking is that they have made the conservative assumption of operating in the Aussie market only- which would support their revenue assumptions. And rightly so- at this stage I wouldn't be adding any revenue from international expansion to any DCF- execution risk at this point would be through the roof to the point where u would probably want to assume 0 revenue on it. As well, as much as we want to say oh theres a 1MM case supplier signing up ( + the potential of further big sign ups) & "Dean said we're expanding internationally"- you also can't add that to a DCF until concrete + making assumptions for 'potential' in a DCF would borderline speculation.
In my opinion- the DW8 investment play right now would be to take the conservative growth of a local business to 10c SP relatively risk free ( adjusting accordingly with any surprise / disappointment quarterly results ), and take any additional revenue as a bonus ( >2.6% market uptake in 5 years + intl. expansion+ left of field sign ups). All in all a really good deal at these levels.
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