Why IMU is a multi multi bagger, page-4644

The Board of Imugene (IMU) has done a remarkable job in harnessing valuable intellectual property and growing the company’s market capitalisation thus far. They have minimised expenditure and created a business that has money in the bank and access to capital through Research and Development Grants and the exercising of ongoing option issues. Yet as an investor in any stock I find it important to step outside the ebs and flows of the stock market, of fund managers, and even company representatives, and take an analytical view of where a particular stock is at, at a particular point in time. And perhaps in doing so offer some constructive criticism as to where they could be heading. It’s a big world out there now. Hype, brand awareness, brand recognition, social media and indeed social influencers all play a role in lifting stocks to higher valuations, in an investment community that is increasingly disconnected from the fundamantals driving stock valuations. “If Elon Musk, Cathie Wood or David Portnoy’s telling me it’s a good thing, I’m buying it”. Put simply, if Imugene is to survive and thrive in it’s current structure, and avoid a takeover out of left field, it may need to deliver a message not science based, but based on driving traffic to their story. They do have a compelling story to tell. At their best, Imugene has a cure for cancer. And even at worst they have safe and efficacious drugs that in combination with other immunotherapy drugs, can offer cancer patients treatment with less side effects than existing immunotherapy drugs. In fact their B Cell platform has exemplified an immune responses to treatment. Isn’t that a good story? You bought it, hook,line and sinker. But does anyone around the globe actually know of the IMU story?

Imugene and Big Pharma

It’s a fine line between spruiking your wares and selling yourself short. Between not giving much away, and giving yourself away. Imugene has eight to ten trials in the clinic next year. If one out of ten trials succeed, as is the statistical probability, that’s a potential $4bn USD per annum sales target to look forward to. And we know Big Pharma are paying close to four times that for successful immunotherappy drugs with long patent runways. Keep in mind that’s just for blood cancer treatments, heaven forbid if one of the Imugene solid tumour trials is successful. A sale of $16bn USD is about 7 or 8 times the current market capitalisation of Imugene (IMU). Do Big Pharam roll the dice now, and bet on one tenth of Imugene’s drugs to come through? Or sit back, wait and pray nothing is successful? Do they pay 20 or 30 times the current share price in a year, or bet on paying a 50 to 100% premium on the current share price in a year from now?

We do know it is often cheaper for larger companies to acquire a given product or a service than to build it out from scratch. Imugene’s Intellectual Property has been building for over 20 years. We know a good Biotech takeover company is one that has carved out a niche, and is ready to expand, but needs greater capital to take their drugs to market from Phase 2, to Phase 3 and onto the production lines and into mass distribution. Remember IMU has only one class of common stock and no debt. They have multiple potential revenue streams, a steady business, experienced management, and the capacity to increase margins on their extensive pipeline of products. Yes they tick all the boxes as a red hot takeover target. It’s a bullseye for Big Pharma. But what if anything can IMU do to avoid the suitors clutches? To prevent being swept up and taken away to never never land?

Imugene - The announcement drought

Let’s take a step back. I remember walking along the beach as a child and watching the waves move further and further from shore at low tide. As if never to return. Or how could I forget during our recent gutwrenching drought, riding to the far corners of our property, amidst cattle begging for food. Hungry mouths in search of hay, forage, anything to sustain them for one more day. Following me aimlessly, in a last ditch cry for help. Or later those evenings in the dead of night sleeping restlessly, praying for rain, that thanklessly never came. Today Imugene shareholders to await. Await announcements, developments and results. We’ve been promised them. PD1 Vaxx final dosage rates in the B cell drugs Phase 1 trial together with signs of safety and efficacy. Her Vaxx OSR results and the final analysis on the HER 2 immunotherapy drugs’s Phase 2 trial. News of patient 1’s second dosing with Imugene’s wonder drug, CF33. Or simply announcements of future PD1 Vaxx, Her Vaxx and Oncarlytics combination trials and partners. The days go by and the impetus continues. We find ourselves on a slow burn, anxiously awaiting for our destiny to arrive. Or indeed depart, depending on which side of the ledger our money falls on.

Mainstream media and big name fund managers

On May 19, 2021 the fire in Imugene was ignited. A Channel 7 News Story sparked a flame, burning brightly ever since. The public and therein retail investors became aware of the Imugene opportunity. Shortly therafter In an article I penned on July 28 of this year entitled , “When the big boys ride into town...for a few dollars more”, I predicted fund managers of the calibre of Blackrock, Vanguard and State Street could soon be gracing the share registry of IMU, if Imugene’s initial post clinical results were anything to go by. And believe it or not, a quick check of the IMU share registry in recent weeks highlights the fact they have indeed appeared. And this is no mean feat by the way. Having these three managers on the Imugene share register is not only a vote of confidence in the company, and where they are heading, but a financial coup for the company, as it assists in building market awareness and as a consequence market capitalisation. After all the “Big Three” asset managers — BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street — which combined manage over $15 trillion in global assets, equivalent to more than three-quarters of U.S. GDP and more than three times the GDP of Germany. I myself thought a landslide of fund managers would have followed suit. This prophecy has eventuated, though only have in part, and certainly not overwhelmingly. Many funds are still awaiting the interim and final data in ongoing Imugene trials before choosing to invest. Whilst many are eagerly following the Phase 1 trials for Imugene’s flagship drug, the Yuman Fong designed oncolytic masterpiece, CF33, hailed as the saviour for a plethora of cancer lines. CF33, recognised as a gateway into the treatment of solid tumours, the “holy grail” of cancer research.

But outside of lost individuals such as I, who walk aimlessly along beaches chasing waves out from shore, or search for starving cattle in the shadows of drought, who has heard of Imugene? Outside a few Channel 7 news viewers in May who in the wake of another TV dinner between “Home and Away” and an episode of “A farmer wants a wife”, happened upon the Imugene story in the evening news. Indeed outside of some savvy fund managers in the US on the prowl for a bonus, who has heard of Imugene and their potential cure(s) for cancer? In the greater scheme of things, has anyone really heard of Imugene? Well Pfizer obviously have. Three of their leading shareholders Blackrock, Vanguard and State Street opened the door, and the Big Pharma bohemith closed it. Clinching a deal with Merck Germany to reel in Her Vaxx, one of Imugene B Cell bombshells. As discussed in previous posts since 2018 and 2019 Pfizer have been looking for combinations partners with which to extend their immunotherappy reach and market share in the field of cancer research. Their recent acquistion of Trilium Therapeutics is only the beginning of their journey to never never land.

IMU - The takeover target

Trawling through posts on this and other IMU threads I quickly ascertain a takeover is not the want of many long term holders. But like it or not Imugene is a rabbit in the headlights of the Pfizers and Mercks of the world. Particularly with a never ending pipeline, long patent runway and safety on their side. Did I mention CF33 and Oncarlytics, and the company’s collaborations with Celularity and Eureka Therapeutics? Look I’m getting nervous. This concept of letting science do the talking works for some Esmo Congress 2021 attendees, but not the broader population. Not the youth of today who are stuck in lock downs around the world buying undervalued shares. The harrispoll.com reported recently on behalf of Yahoo Finance that over a quarter of Americans said they bought shares (either whole or fractional) from at least one of more than twenty viral company stocks like GameStop this past January. Among those who purchased a viral stock in January, the most popular companies were AMC Entertainment (35%), GameStop (33%), and BlackBerry (23%). Stock purchases skewed young and male with 40% of those ages 18-44 and 40% of men buying shares (compared to 17% of those 45+ and 16% of women, respectively). Despite being scoffed at by traditionalists and AFR journalists as being “meme” stocks, the reality is stocks such as AMC Entertainment were significantly undervalued before social media channels such as Reddit and Tiktok brought them into the headlights of retails investors worldwide. And guess what? In the main many have held their uptick in price, and not fallen below their share price prior their virus taking hold.

With this in mind how does Imugene move past the “Follow the Science matra” to achieve a market capitalisation that is not susceptible to a takeover from Big Pharma? For if the company continue to follow the science, potentially the only people who are going to come knocking are actually Big Pharma and their shareholders, if the past six months is anything to go by. Certainly international retail investors globally haven’t taken the science bait. Perhaps because there hasn’t been any. What was that I said about lack of announcements? Maybe with Axel Hoos since departed the brakes could be off. The company’s previous caution when making announcements, may be tempered with exuberance, as opposed to the other way round, as it were. Maybe we need to remind Generation Next that not only is IMU significantly undervalued, but that before they finish riding a few more waves cancer is going to touch them. Whether it’s a relative, a friend, or even a work colleague, cancer is on its way to a beach near them. How can we alert them to these ground breaking, game changing clinical breakthroughs in the field of cancer research and treatment?

Building brand recognition, market capitalisation and the broader market

What if Imugene took the marketing route? Employed a sophisticated marketing company to sell their story to the masses. Imagine if they created a video such as this, utilising the skills of a professional management agency?

Okay you say, what if we did have a substantially higher market capitalisation? So what you may well ask, what differenjce does that make? Market capitalization is nothing but the value market attributes to your company. The math is simple: the price at which a willing buyer was able to buy one share in the secondary market from a willing seller times total shares outstanding.Yet what is its use if market capitalization does not represent a real chest of money readily available to the shareholders and/or the company?

Well there is a benefit in securing a higher market capitalisation. For what market capitalization gives you is a benchmark for your shares. So if the company really needs money it can tap into the primary market (in form of a follow on offering) with a benchmark of price (obviously there are aspects of follow on offering discounts etc.) but in general you know what you can raise and at what price. The same argument goes for shareholders. They know how much their shares can command in open market (for low volumes, large volumes of sale or purchases can swing the market value). Furthermore larger companies are often be able to secure better financing terms from banks and by selling corporate bonds. Also, these companies might benefit from competitive advantages related to their sizes, such as economies of scale or widespread brand recognition.

What about social influencers?

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported recently One January afternoon, Tesla Inc. Chief Executive Elon Musk sent out an 11-character tweet: “Gamestonk!!” His Twitter followers sprung into action. GameStop Corp. shares surged more than 150% overnight. The next day, analysts threw up their hands. Nothing apart from Mr. Musk’s tweet—which included a link to Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum—could explain why the stock soared.

Mr. Musk isn’t alone in moving stocks by simply tweeting. Public figures as varied as the Tesla executive, venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya, Barstool Sports founder David Portnoy and fund manager Cathie Wood have collectively amassed hundreds of millions of followers online. Many of their fans are individual investors who take their comments on the market as gospel. The WSJ reports “Many of today’s influencers have appealed to their followers precisely because of their irreverence and disdain for financial-industry norms. Their followers often profess they couldn’t care less about the depth of analysis behind a trade. If their icon is buying something, they will throw money at it, too.”

Perhaps if Imugene is to continue growing and be in a position to develop their own pipeline to reach their potential, the employement of a leading marketing professional to work closely with Monil Shah is a must. I might give him a call. Building brand recognition, liaising and coercing leading social influencers could be an integral part of their role. In essence building a bridge between Imugene and the new millenial investors both in the US and beyond, who are yet to “dissolve” and resonate to the IMU story. Let’s face it, you as a multi bagger have bought the IMU story, what’s stopping the rest of the world?

Why is imminent growth is important for Imugene?

Growth in the Imugene market cap is needed not simply to fend off takeovers or raise capital at at higher prices. For me it’s the fact that being in a position to develop their own B cell, CF33 and Oncarlytics pipeline, Imugene moves to a position of strength, wherein further research and development, clinical and combination trials can commence without fear or favour. Without having to look over their shoulder to see which predator is waiting on your back doorstep. Without having to license out a promising drug and sell their soul at a discount simply to fund future clinical trials and product development. It’s about being in a position to stand on your own two feet as a recognised market leader with a loyal band of supporters worldwide, ready and waiting in the wings to throw capital at you every time a promising drug or product development opportunity appears. Why can’t Imugene develop their own drugs in combination with eachother, rather than positioning our drugs and combining them with outdated monoclonal antibodies and the side effects they bring cancer patients? If fully capitalised Imugene could develop Her Vaxx, PD Vxx and B Vaxx in house and fund combination trials with their own drugs. They could fast track Oncarlytics, PD1 Vaxx and the TiGiT programmes ahead of their competitors. In obtaining the share price and brand recognition commensurate with a market leader in the fast growing field of immunotherapy, Imugene could prevent Big Pharma form “pipping them to the post”. Post clinical trials highlight they do have the safety, low toxicity and the immune response required to take their cancer treatment to the next level.

Leonard Bernstein once said, “To achieve great things, two things are needed; a plan, and not quite enough time”. Imugene have a plan, to create a safe and efficacious pipeline of drugs to garner ones immune system against evil cancer cells. Perhaps its just us that don’t quite have the time Berstein so poignantly refers to. For time to be on Imugene’s side they need to quickly asceratin whether they are standing on our own two feet, or acquiescing to Big Pharma. At the current share price, given the IP they have on board, it may not be too much longer before the ship starts to drift further and further out to sea, away from what might have been, into the arms of Big Pharma. For Big Pharma is circling, they can smell blood in the water, and they haven’t yet given the market enough amunition to increase the current share price and stave them off. And if you think they have, as they say in the classics, “you’re dreamin”. It’s just a matter of time until Imugene are swallowed up like many promising small biotechs before them. Think about it. If you’re Merck, Roche and Pfizer its much easier to obtain board approval for a ten or twenty billion dollar takover, than a 100 billion dollar one. I mean you’d have to be Bob Harari to pull that one off. Actually come to think of it, I’m praying Bob Harari isn’t on Hot Copper. He might get some idea’s. That is if he doesn’t have them already.

Summer 2021 - 2022

So where are we now? At low tide. In the grips of Omicron. Teetering above support levels in search of the announcement that never arrives. Forever wary of the fact that sharks can swim at low tide. We haven’t gone viral. Reddit and Tiktok are relaxing on the beach in front of us, but we are too nervous to engage them. Young international body surfers cannot even see us as we’re too far from their line of sight. We don’t have the dream video and marketing campaign I had wished for. Bots keep pestering us, like blue bottles in search of another sting. And then there’s the ASX, on beach petrol monitoring our every move. Not to mention unskilled journalsts, eager to report on the latest attack, or momentary drowning, depending on which comes first.

Though don’t believe all the bullshit fellow multi baggers. Stay out of the rip. High tide is taking you back to a much higher level than where you were swimming on Monday November 29. Though unfortunately Big Pharma and her shareholders may arrive back on the beach before you do. It’s now simply a matter of whether they want you to sit under their umbrella with them, or leave you out in the sun to dry. For whilst we may be able to afford the sunscreen at this point in time, unfortunately the umbrella seems a bit out of the question. And if you think at 50 cents that isn’t the case, “you’re dreamin’”. Put CF33 and Oncarlytics on the open market as bait for Big Pharma and see what they fetch. Why 50 cents AUD would be gobbled up in a heartbeat for just those two Imugene assets on their own. If they were lucky enough to reel us in Bob Harari and his colleagues would be sending us Christmas cards for forever and a day. Together with free seats at Tony Robbins forthcoming seminar. No I say “Tell ‘em their dreamin’ if they think IMU isn’t prime for the taking. I only wish I was strong enough to get on the lifesaver's loud speaker at the beach and start spruiking about what IMU actually have inside their speedo’s, before it’s too late. I understand the rationale a few dollars saved is a few dolllars gained. I can comprehend the belief that ultimately the science shall do the talking. But I’d rather us speak for ourselves, than be the mouthpiece for Big Pharma. But then again, maybe its me whose dreamin’. Until we reach a much higher market capitalisation than that which we have today, the smell of blood in the water is always simply another wave away. If recent board room activities are anything to go by, we’d never have enough votes to sustain a fight against a predatory attack, even if the majority of us wanted to.

Is it too late?

Increasing a share price is all about increasing the level of demand for the share, over supply. An increase in market capitalisation inherently follows. At present IMU are treading water on low volumes, between low levels of demand and supply. The big boys are in town, and if you think they’re not voting “Yes” on their Proxy ballot in the event of a takeover, think again. They’ve already bought shares on both sides of the ledger. As was the situation with Trilium Therapeutics, it’s a win win for them. Let’s not forget the long haul for them is about as far as next years bonus. They’re not interested in sticking around and creating the next CSL. I think personally, from a marketing perspective, it’s a matter of changing course and putting on our blinkers as opposed to our goggles, when it comes to following the science, in order for the company to survive in their current structure. Most people buying shares in 2021 don’t even understand the science. They don’t read analyst reports. They live and breathe on hype, on stocks going viral. They’re simply punting on the next wave to come their way, and unlike us they don’t really care whose on it with them. Imugene or Pfizer, who cares? Unless we convince them that is. Unless we programme them to live and breathe Imugene. Now what was the name of that video marketing company? Those social media platforms I spoke about? The social influencers. It’s not too late. Or is it?

Do your own research. Seek investment advice where necessary.