daytrade diaries... october 20, page-41

EXM (Excalibur Mining). Flagship exploration results due anyday. Company alreay has a 1.17mn Oz gold resource. I did some very rough back-of-the-envelope calculations.


EXM: Excalibur Mining


Location: Tennant Creek, Northern Territory

Shares on issue (<3cents): 2,583,649,231

Mkt Cap (@1.5c): 2,583,649,231 * 0.015 = $38.75mn

Mkt Cap (@3.0c): 2,759,662,083 * 0.03 = $82.79mn


2008/09 FY Performance:

Loss: ($2.30mn)

Cash: $1.69mn + $10mn (Bell Potter Placement)
= $11.69mn

Cash Per Share: $11,690,000 / 2,583,649,231
= $0.0045
= 30.16% of the current share price

Enterprise Value: $38.75mn - $11.69mn
= $27.06mn
= $0.0105 cents per share



Major Projects:

- Nobles Nob
- Juno
- Rising Sun


Resource Base:

3.6mt @ >10g/t = 1.17mn Oz gold

At $1050 AUD Oz = $1,228,500,000 IGV of GOLD



Costs: Per Ounce Production/Opex Costs

$325 per Oz

@ $1050 AUD gold price = $725 AUD margin per ounce


Gross Profit on 1.17mn ounces at $725 AUD margin
= $848.25mn AUD


Targeting Annual Production of: 80,000 - 140,000 ounces pa

Lets use say, 80,000 pa at $600 margin. $600 margin (as opposed to $725) gives $125 leway for a) gold price falling b) AUD rising

80,000 * 600 = $48,000,000 profit per year!


EPS (estimate) = $48,000,000 / 2,583,649,231
= $0.0186


Say, PE = 6-8:
PE 6 = $0.1116
= 11.16cps

PE 8 = $0.1488
= 14.88cps




Very rough. Value is obvious however. Cheap up to 3c easily...