if you read company announcements, you'll see that (other than divesting non core assets, spinning out Kal etc) for some time the strategy has been to focus on identifying the high grade Ni ore, and optimising around that - they aren't trying to develop the whole thing in one hit.
the goal for sometime has been to get Ni feed grades up around 1% for as long as possible - reading between the lines this reflects strategic partner feedback and the fact that the battery metals market has really changed since ARL IPO'd - partners want mainly Nickel, with cobalt perhaps a bonus but non essential.
I'm scratching my memory now but I think they confirmed they have in a release that they have 15yrs at 1% a while back, and looking at the ~ 800kt Ni at 1% or whatever the latest resource upgrade was, they should be able to get 30,000 contained Ni out each year for 25yrs+ with the feed grade around that 1 mark%.
Note this is just processing the high grade goethite ore component, so when you see posters flag "WA laterite factor" as being a problem for ARL, you know they haven't really understood why its been a problem historically (Twiggy Forrest cutting essential capex out of projects where orebody is high in clay/magnesite etc), and how the core ARL orebody is different.
Final thoughts:
ARL have always been very conservative. They are yet to run the numbers on processing scandium, magnesium or rare earths as upside. We actually produce Ni, Co, Mg in 8:1:1 concentrations. Curious, no?
And your comments re: MHP/PCAM - note Tesla are going to a new form factor (4680) but more importantly, a new processing route, that will do away with Sulphates. Giga Berlin and Austin are both setup with battery manufacturing facilities embedded in the factory/production line. Look at benchmark minerals and you will see MHP payables are right up there, there is essentially no premium being paid.
Tesla has a stated goal of getting to TWh's of battery production. Yes, Two, not GWh.
For 10years, Tesla has been ahead of the market on battery chemistries. If this trend continues, its likely that PCAM won't be a thing.
I'd much rather be in ARL shoes - staring out with MHP, and the option of partnering with others to do the PCAM if it makes sense down the track
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