Oh, thanks Mowibble. Your's too. Its easy to post however when the value is starkly obvious.
I recently compared TAM to EXM for my own interest and my own due-diligence. Really, just to help me determine how many million EXM i buy. lol
Came out with the following:
NOTE: Very back-of-the-envelope calculations and they were to my benefit/assistance/due-diligence only.
I need to factor in EXM future equity raisings/debt issues, but the value was so obvious i thought i'd save that for a rainy day. lol
TAM:
Shares on issue: 3,538,390,059
Mkt Cap @ $0.065: $230,000,000 = $230mn
Tanami Region of Northern Territory. Region hosts resources in excess of 11mn ounces of gold.
Area very isolated (negative) but largely unexplored (positive) given its isolation.
TAM targeting 50-70,000 ounces per annum. Open-Pit.
2009 production from open-pit operations: 23,320 ounces [147,000 tonnes at 5.1g/t]
2009 FY loss: $21mn.
Loss per shares = $21,000,000/3,538,390,059
= $0.0059
= 9% of the current shares price
Current gold price around $1010 USD.
$1010 USD = $1010/0.88 = $1,150 AUD
Lets say they produce at $700 AUD per ounce.
Margin = $450 AUD
Target: 50-70,000 onces per annum
Profit (Gross from open-pit operation):
= $450 * 50,000 ounces
= $22,500,000
Profit (Gross from open-pit operation):
= $450 * 70,000 ounces
= $31,500,000
Say, PE multiple...?...8. Would say 6, but i'll give higher to account for exploration upside.
Target Price at 50,000 ounces per annum
$22,500,000 * 8 = $180,000,000
Per Share Value attributed: $180,000,000/3,538,390,059
= $0.051
= 5.1 cents per share (cps)
Target Price at 70,000 ounces per annum
$31,500,000 * 8 = $252,000,000
Per Share Value attributed: $252,000,000/3,538,390,059
= $0.071
= 7.1 cents per share (cps)
DISCOUNTS:
- Current mkt conditions.
- Run up already
- Risks: financing, operational, currency, commodity, general market
..........................................................................
EXM: Excalibur Mining
Location: Tennant Creek, Northern Territory
Shares on issue (<3cents): 2,583,649,231
Mkt Cap (@1.5c): 2,583,649,231 * 0.015 = $38.75mn
Mkt Cap (@3.0c): 2,759,662,083 * 0.03 = $82.79mn
2008/09 FY Performance:
Loss: ($2.30mn)
Cash: $1.69mn + $10mn (Bell Potter Placement)
= $11.69mn
Cash Per Share: $11,690,000 / 2,583,649,231
= $0.0045
= 30.16% of the current share price
Enterprise Value: $38.75mn - $11.69mn
= $27.06mn
= $0.0105 cents per share
Major Projects:
- Nobles Nob
- Juno
- Rising Sun
Resource Base:
3.6mt @ >10g/t = 1.17mn Oz gold
At $1050 AUD Oz = $1,228,500,000 IGV of GOLD
Costs: Per Ounce Production/Opex Costs
$325 per Oz
@ $1050 AUD gold price = $725 AUD margin per ounce
Gross Profit on 1.17mn ounces at $725 AUD margin
= $848.25mn AUD
Targeting Annual Production of: 80,000 - 140,000 ounces pa
Lets use say, 80,000 pa at $600 margin. $600 margin (as opposed to $725) gives $125 leway for a) gold price falling b) AUD rising
80,000 * 600 = $48,000,000 profit per year!
EPS (estimate) = $48,000,000 / 2,583,649,231
= $0.0186
Say, PE = 6-8:
PE 6 = $0.1116
= 11.16cps
PE 8 = $0.1488
= 14.88cps
Trading/Regiser Dynamics:
Top 20 = 25.40%; very low; symptomatic of it been a trading stock
Obviously changed with Bell Potter placement
Time-Frame:
- Resource definition, funding, planning, drilling for next 18months
By end 2010, decision on mining.
- Juno the major operation.
Before Juno comes on line, the company plan to mine open pit Nobles Nobe + Rising Sun for early cashflow and to re-allocate that cash flow back into Juno ramp up.
Juno: 1.1mt @ 18.68g/t for 661,488 ounces of gold.
Looks to be an excellent resource.
Initially open pit. Long term potential exists to later on go underground.
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$3.24 |
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Mkt cap ! $226.3M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$3.33 | $3.33 | $3.12 | $381.4K | 115.7K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 2788 | $3.12 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$3.24 | 9272 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 50 | 3.100 |
1 | 172 | 3.000 |
1 | 693 | 2.950 |
1 | 15000 | 2.940 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
3.240 | 9272 | 1 |
3.250 | 4611 | 1 |
3.430 | 5500 | 1 |
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