Thanks for this! Yes - will share what I can. I'm not a professional valuer, but have used models for our own business a number of times and am familiar with them. I would say that my suspicion is Neuren's assets are likely worth AU$10B-$20B in the next 2-4 years, not $2B. I think people are underestimating the potential of a disease modifying agent that requires permanent ongoing use in relatively long lived patients and could work across an entire spectrum of disorders (not just 1) in which there is zero competition and massively high per patient payments (conditions that are really severe and worth this). And that is not including Autism or TBI. Jon is right when he said this is just the beginning - why would anyone think the Retts valuation (Kaast peak estimated $1B on this alone) is the main value here - considering it was negotiated when Neuren was in the weakest position ever compared to looking forward now. I don't think people are thinking big enough. Acadia was worth US$8b a while ago - why would Neuren's long term value be lower than this if some of the above comes to fruition? The biggest question was always (after 15 years waiting!) can Neuren actually get one of these compounds successfully through a Phase 3 and to be approved for a Neuro disorder? These results blew this out of the water with p values way way better than needed - no grey areas there. No longer requires blind faith to think they can succeed for the other 5 disorders (and the next 5 after that). To me biggest risk in all this potential has now been largely (subject to FDA approval) resolved. Will be interesting to see what plugging numbers in produces!
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